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I’m en route to Richmond this afternoon — soccer, what else! — but, before I headed out, I wanted to answer your questions from the political week that was.
As always, these are real questions from real paid subscribers to this newsletter.
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Q: I keep reading that people are disgusted with both parties and just won’t vote in November. If so, what’s the likely outcome?
A: There’s no question that there’s a large swath of the public that actively dislikes both political parties. But, I actually think that will matter more heading into 2028 than it will in the midterms.
Here’s why: Midterms tend to be a battle between the two party bases. Casual voters or voters who feel alienated from the party system don’t usually show up.
That’s a major problem for Republicans. Because while the Democratic base is 100% showing up to stick it to Donald Trump, it’s clear from poll after poll that the GOP base is less fired up heading into November 3.
Which isn’t unique to Trump or this midterm! There’s a reason that the party who controls the presidency has lost House seats in 20 of the last 22 midterms! It’s because that party is fat and happy (generally speaking) while the party out of power is super fired up to get back some control in Washington.
Republicans desperately need to find a way to motivate their base in the last month of the campaign. Trump’s whole ban-the-media ploy is aimed at doing that. So too is the rhetoric around Democrats being communists. And you are starting to see more trans rhetoric emerging too.
I am very skeptical it works. But they’ve got to try something to solve their enthusiasm problem.
Q: Having seen your most recent ratings of Senate seats most likely to flip, and we’re getting down to the wire, what’s your prediction for the makeup of the Senate come January, 2027?
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