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Q: I am more worried about Maine and new Hampshire and than I am about Kansas. Does that make me crazy? And where are the most concerned/unsure?
A: You can worry about whatever Senate races you want!
I think it is very important to remember that Maine is a place Kamala Harris won by seven points in 2024 while Kansas is a state that Donald Trump won by 16.
While candidates matter — and Adam Hamilton is a better candidate than Troy Jackson — the ground on which the race is run matters more.
Which is why I think Maine is likely to go Democratic before Kansas does.
That said, Sen. Susan Collins hasn’t won every Senate race she’s run since 1996 by being unskilled. Any other GOP candidate in a state as Democratic as Maine — especially in this national political environment — would be losing by 8-10 points by now.
Collins isn’t. She’s behind but only by a few points. Which means she can win.
As for Kansas: if the election were held today, Roger Marshall would lose. But there are still 25 days for Senate Republicans’ spending to remind Kansas voters that Hamilton is a Democrat.
To be clear: I still think Kansas is a real pickup possibility for Democrats. But I think Maine falls first.
My full weekly Senate rankings are here.
Q: Do you think the debates in Georgia, Maine and Michigan last night moved the needle one way or the other or is the die already cast in these races? Also, who do think won each debate?
Q: Are you going to offer any opinions and/or analysis on the debates?
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