Tuesday was an awful night for the GOP, but there are some things worth noting today.
First, a timely reminder: politics is not supposed to be the dominant part of your life. As Chuck Colson said, “Salvation will never arrive on Air Force One.”
All authority is put in place by God Almighty Himself, and you can trust that He has a plan that works for all our good. The election worked out exactly as God wanted. All things really do work together for the good of those called according to His purpose. We are to love God and our neighbors and pray for our leaders.
We really are going to be okay.
Both sides drove their bases to the polls through fear. Republicans were told the Democrats would wipe out the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, create new states, and on and on. Some Democrats do campaign on that.
Democrats were told there would be no midterm, the President would impose martial law, Hispanics would be arrested at the polls, and the military and federal officials would be there to monitor things. President Trump did suggest some of that.
Both sides play by fear.
Christians are called to live not by fear, but by faith. We are told not to worry about tomorrow.
But there is more to look at this morning.
We can’t dismiss the polling as wrong. If anything, it was too Republican.
Consider, then, that according to the exit polling, which is even more reliable than the public opinion polling, a majority of those who voted supported capitalism and rejected socialism.
A majority of those who voted do not want a massive Washington, D.C.
In state after state, the middle class rejected tax increases, voted to restrict government, cracked down on casinos and gambling, and voted for a host of conservative policy initiatives.
Even in California, where the most hyperprogressive counties voted for the billionaires’ tax, the state rejected it overwhelmingly and voters banned further consideration of a wealth tax.
Then look at the rest of the data.
The cost of living and corruption were the two big issues.
Vice President Vance has a vested interest in protectionism, isolationism, and an anti-Israel stance. He is a pro-life socialist. The data actually showed concerns about tariffs ranked higher than the Iran war, and Israel barely had a pulse as an issue.
But the Vice President consulted an anonymous pollster who told him exactly what he already believed.
You don’t have to believe that.
Some of you may say, “Well Erickson, you have not reassessed your priors either.” Actually, I supported the war in Iran, but I recognize it hurt the GOP. And I support the deportations, but recognize it hurt the GOP. While most Americans who voted actually agree with the Republican position on immigration, the voters also thought it was done with too heavy a hand and with cruelty. The process, not the policy, provoked a backlash. I’d also note the Vice President ignored that.
As I put in the show notes yesterday, ninety percent of Americans said government corruption was a motivating factor in their vote, and they weren’t talking about the high-speed rail in California. Some of them were talking about the Somali welfare fraud. Most were talking about the Trump family corruption. Again, the Vice President ignored that.
Christopher Rufo and others have tried to revitalize Richard Nixon’s legacy, and on Tuesday the voters treated Republicans like the post-Watergate Nixon Republicans. It was kind of ironic.
Over sixty percent of Americans said the Iran war was the wrong decision, but two Republican senators told me the Senate Republicans’ polling showed the GOP only turned on the war after learning the details of the memorandum of understanding Vice President Vance negotiated with Iran. Until then, Republicans were willing to support the war. They turned when Vance decided to negotiate with terrorists. GOP support went up right after the memorandum of understanding, but as details came out, the GOP turned decisively against the war and never recovered.
Seventy-nine percent say inflation caused their family severe or moderate hardship. Sixty-two percent blame higher prices more on President Trump’s policies than on factors beyond his control. Sixty-five percent say his policies worsened the economy, against twenty-seven percent who say they improved it. Seventy-five percent rate the economy poor, forty-four percent say they are worse off than two years ago, and thirty-nine percent named the economy the top issue.
Sixty-four percent say tariffs hurt the national economy (seventy-eight to nineteen among Democrats), and sixty-three percent say they hurt their local economy (seventy-nine to eighteen among Democrats). Only fifteen percent say tariffs helped their area. That is the most lopsided policy verdict in the poll, and voters judged it by their own towns.
These things are fixable. Republicans in Congress would be wise to use their platforms to help Democrats investigate the corruption and show bipartisan concern. Were I a ranking Republican in the House or Senate, I’d be cooperating on an investigation into the Trump and Lutnick family business dealings to show I take corruption seriously.
Lastly, there is this.
The last time any party was hurt this badly at the polls was 1974. Republicans were wiped out by Watergate and Nixon’s behavior. That is why the House and Senate GOP should take their investigative role against executive corruption seriously now, to earn back trust.
Fundraising for the library is led by Meredith O’Rourke, who has worked with Mr. Trump since 2016.
The foundation also raises money through PSQ Impact, a donation platform run by PublicSquare, a company whose board includes Donald Trump Jr. The foundation’s[donation page]says contributions will “help preserve important archives, promote civic education, and inspire generations to come.” Trump Jr. began receiving $42,000 a month in consulting fees from PublicSquare in August 2024, according to Securities and Exchange Commission[filings].
But also, two years later, Republicans started to recover, and within six years Ronald Reagan was in the White House and brought a Republican Senate majority with him.
In 1994, Bill Clinton saw a wipeout of the Democrats. He won re-election two years later.
In 2010, Barack Obama saw a wipeout of the Democrats. He won re-election two years later.
We’re going to have a presidential election in two years.
Were I the GOP, I would chart a course toward the states and away from the White House. Find a governor to run for President, one the GOP gives permission to disagree with the President.
In Georgia, Brian Kemp held on because Trump attacked him. That made him popular with independents. In Florida, Ron DeSantis, too, defied Trump and built up a state that withstood the flood on Tuesday. Kelly Ayotte just won re-election as a Republican in New Hampshire despite the blue wave.
There are paths forward for the GOP.
They must begin with taking corruption seriously and taking on the tariffs and other policies contributing to high costs. I have a friend who admitted he sat out the election because the tariffs have wrecked his small business. According to him, he’s lost more money in the past two years than in the previous thirty because of high tariffs on the materials he needs in construction and the accompanying domestic price increases from American producers whose foreign competitors are now restricted.
In two years, we will have another election. The whole House will be up for grabs. The GOP needs to re-earn trust and chart a course toward new leadership.
But you, my friends, you need to rest. We all do. Tuesday was a bad night. Lament. Lamenting is good for the soul. But lamenting is more than grieving and complaining. Lamenting is putting trust in God, coming to terms with what happened, and being honest with oneself.
“To cry is human, but to lament is Christian…. Belief in God’s mercy, redemption, and sovereignty create lament. Without hope in God’s deliverance and the conviction that he is all-powerful, there would be no reason to lament when pain invaded our lives… to learn how to lament, we must resolve to talk to God — to keep praying. Lament begins with an invitation to turn to God while in pain.”
— Mark Vroegop
Go rest up. Lament what happened. Know that the sun is still going to come up. The country is still going to be here. There is a path forward,
and on the issues, Americans are not as divided as you might think. Most of them largely agree with you.
But on Tuesday, they needed the President, the GOP, and all of us to understand that they are angry right now and do not believe the President or the GOP has helped them. If you cannot accept that, you are part of the problem that needs to be addressed.
A new leader with a positive vision can help reset that, and you can too, in your own community, working as a loving neighbor and not as a partisan.
A lot of Trump supporters, on Wednesday, rushed to the monocausal explanation — that single cause that wiped out the GOP. They concluded it was race, if not Israel via Iran.
Ezra Klein, who I do not agree with very much, noted a few years ago that whichever party wins Twitter loses the country with three to four years. Republicans on Twitter are convinced ethnicity and race has turned the country against the GOP.
They all point to Texas.
But in Texas, two years ago, Republicans won the Hispanic vote. Nationally, President Trump won 46% to 48% of the Hispanic vote two years ago. Now, Hispanic Americans live in fear of arrest and detainment by ICE, even though they are American citizens, and that actually has happened.
That provoked a backlash.
If the GOP decides to down down on racial grievances of white people, the GOP will be wiped out. In fact, across the South, white voters voted for non-white Democrats to repudiate the GOP on the economy. The majority of Americans do not bear ill will to non-white Americans and do not hold to racial grievances. If the GOP becomes a party of white whiners and antisemites, it will deserve to be wiped out.
My friend Andrew Walker 𝕏noted this on Twitter:
This scapegoating ethno-fetishism on the Right in the aftermath of the midterms is repugnant. It reflects an intellectual weakness at odds with American ideals, dressed up as political sophistication. Demographics weren’t destiny in 2024, but now that the GOP took some massive Ls, apparently monocausal explanations for what are really a whole host of policy failures are once again in vogue.
Human action cannot be reduced to geography and blood; neither offers a sufficient basis for understanding politics or making political decisions. Reducing politics to these forces amounts to embracing Machiavellian means for Darwinian ends.
Demographics are not destiny. Donald Trump assembled a multi-racial, multi-ethnic coalition in 2024, but too many in his administration have embraced racial grievances and were complicit in the crack up of his coalition.
