Greetings all. Got a few things for you today……
Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Devin Remiker joins us live at 115pm ET. He will be updating us on how the party is coming together after their wild primary and their progress in completing the job after years of hard work and winning the full trifecta this November. You can join us by heading the main Hopium site a little before 115pm or by clicking here. Note that our new Democratic nominee for Governor, David Crowley, leads in the first two post-primary polls by 4 - so we got a shot peeps! Paid subscribers are also gathering tonight at 7pm ET - register here. We have lots to discuss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In new polls from Texas Southern University Democrats lead in three of the five newly drawn House seats that were supposed to be R wins:
The Hispanic vote in Texas appears to be breaking hard towards the Democrats this year, a development that if it continues into the future will make Texas a true purple state:
A new UT/YouGov poll of Texas has Talarico up 42%-39% (+3). Talarico has led in every poll taken since the Republican run-off. It’s all very encouraging.
G. Elliott Morris has dropped his monthly poll and it continues to have good news for Democrats. Here’s the write up - Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security. Some highlights:
Job approval: Trump’s job approval this month is 37% approve / 60% disapprove (net −23), down from −21 in July. 49% strongly disapprove of his job as president vs. 17% who strongly approve.Intensity: that’s a 32-point gap between strong disapproval and strong approval — nearly 3-to-1 — up from a 22-point, 2-to-1 average across all of 2025. Only 47% of Trump’s own approvers feel strongly about it now, down from 54% last year.Every issue is underwater: Trump is now net negative on all 12 issues we test. Border security, the last one standing, fell from +1 in July to −5 — its worst reading yet.Prices: net −48, a new record low in our tracker, down 6 points from July’s −42. Just 24% approve; 73% disapprove.Generic ballot: Democrats lead 49–43 among registered voters (D+6), equivalent to June’s lead. They’ve now led in all 15 polls we’ve run since May 2025.Party trust: Democrats lead on 8 of 12 issues, and by 10 points (46–36) on voters’ own most important problem. The party now nearly matches the Republicans on trust to handle immigration and deportations.Direction of the country: 52% of U.S. adults say things are “going poorly” in the country and “major, disruptive changes are needed” — roughly the same as 49% in July. Just 7% say things are going well.Top problem: 37% name prices/inflation as the single most important problem facing the country — and it’s the No. 1 problem for Republicans (36%), Democrats (37%), and independents (38%) alike.
There is a reason Republicans are worried about turnout:
Threats to democracy/No Kings remains a top tier voting issue, here clocking in as the second most important issue to voters:
Voters have put their faith back in us:
CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow yesterday for meetings with senior Russian government officials. There is no official read out on the visit from our side, yet. It’s been reported he went there to warn Russia not to attack a NATO country, something the West has become increasingly concerned about. Other reports say he went there to get Russia to put pressure on its ally, Iran, to make a deal and truly end the war. This story and excerpt is from Bloomberg today - Russia’s Escalating Hybrid Attacks Put Europeans in a Bind:
Russia is expanding its campaign of hybrid attacks against countries that supply weapons and money to Kyiv and has caught Europe without a plan to respond.
From cyber attacks to armed drones and mysterious cases of arson, tensions are rising across the continent as the war in Ukraine is set to enter its fifth winter. Just this month, Poland said it thwarted an attempted assassination of a US citizen originally from Ukraine that was ordered by Russia while Estonia accused Moscow of being behind a fire at a drone maker…..
European officials have been anticipating for months that Russia may escalate its aggressive campaign against the continent. But the bloc has yet to change its fundamentally defensive posture, according to people familiar with how the institutions gauge outside threats, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
That has likely encouraged Moscow to probe how far it can go in trying to intimidate and wear down western allies as it
remains locked in a war of attrition with Ukraine.“NATO, European and national responses have largely been reactive and defensive,” said Agnia Grigas, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council in Vilnius. “They have focused on detecting and countering individual provocations, but have not built a record of effective deterrence by consistently dissuading Moscow from continuing or escalating them.”
…..Moscow has increasingly relied on recruitment via social media to carry out arson or other sabotage attacks, after large scale expulsions of its diplomats following the invasion of Ukraine.
The reason we here at Hopium must follow these escalating hybrid war attacks is that this more aggressive and desperate Russian posture makes it more likely they will attempt to influence our election here in the US, as they did with their massive campaign to elect Trump in 2016, a campaign that included a highly effective attack on the Democratic Party itself. Russia has no interest in allowing pro-Ukraine Democrats to return to power, and as we’ve discussed in our Evolving Battlefield Project, we must all be vigilant.
Here’s Democracy Docket on our effort to fight Trump’s attack on mail voting:
Democrats renewed their bid Tuesday to block President Donald Trump’s anti-mail voting executive order, arguing that a newly finalized U.S. Postal Service (USPS) rule has eliminated the concerns that led a judge to reject their first injunction request as premature.
The filing — which argues that the USPS lacks the authority to regulate who receives a mail ballot — is the first litigation to challenge the order on its merits. It marks the start of the next phase in the heated legal battle over Trump’s anti-voting directive.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Democratic National Committee, Democratic Governors Association, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries* filed the proposed supplemental complaint in their Washington, D.C., lawsuit challenging Trump’s March executive order.
The plaintiffs also filed a renewed motion for preliminary injunction. They asked the court to hear the motion on or around Sept. 4.
Democrats argued that they are are “severely harmed by the President’s unlawful attempts to upturn the electoral playing field in his own favor and against his political rivals.”
The move comes one day after the U.S. Supreme Court lifted an injunction that had blocked key parts of Trump’s order in 23 Democratic-led states and Washington, D.C., ruling that the state-led challenge was premature because the order itself had not yet concretely harmed the states.
Here’s Politico on another critical court ruling yesterday, this one is potentially a very big win for us - Federal court deals potential blow to Republicans over TV advertising rates:
A federal appeals court on Tuesday ruled that political parties — recently allowed by the Supreme Court to spend unlimited amounts in consultation with campaigns — aren’t entitled to the significantly lower candidate advertising rate when they do so.
That decision, if it stands, would significantly erode the advantage Republicans believe they got from the Supreme Court ruling — affecting how tens of millions of dollars are spent in this year’s midterm election.
The Richmond, Virginia-based 4th Circuit Court of Appeals sided 2-1 with four Democratic candidates over the Federal Communications Commission and Republicans’ campaign arms.
“The [lowest unit charge] requirement and campaign finance statutes are clear that neither political parties nor joint fundraising committees with non-candidate members can be entitled to the LUC,” states the majority opinion, written by Judge Robert King, a Clinton appointee, and Judge James Wynn, an Obama appointee. Judge Harvie Wilkinson, a Reagan appointee, dissented.
Republicans are almost guaranteed to appeal the Tuesday decision. The GOP had hoped to use their cash advantage and the lower rate to flood the airwaves against Democrats as both parties battle for control of Congress.
The special TV rates for candidates begin 60 days before the midterms — 10 days from now — meaning an appeal must come quickly for parties to access them this fall.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.) and Senate candidates Roy Cooper and Sherrod Brown filed the lawsuit, arguing that only candidates themselves — not parties or joint fundraising committees — should be entitled to the cheaper advertising rates available to candidates.
Let’s close with Hopium’s daily mantra:
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
Yes, my friends, it is that time…….
Be sure to watch my timely, new discussion with Tom Bonier about the role of fake and manipulated polling to influence our understanding of elections……
**Our Winning The House Campaign **- Donate | $1,210,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
**Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund **- Donate | $330,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.
Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $22,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
Winning The Senate - $755,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.
**Winning Georgia ***- *$31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party
Winning Iowa - $33,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party
**Winning Maine **- $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman
Winning Ohio - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $657,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Let’s work to make sure everyon…
