Morning all. Here’s my morning early vote update:
I’ve added an additional column to my handy chart which tracks the overall increase in the raw vote since 2022 for each group, and added AAPI too. Note that these big increases in share of the electorate come in an electorate that is 25% bigger than 2022 which is why you will see these huge increases in the raw vote now:
So, to be clear - the Hispanic/Latino share of the electorate has grown 43% in an electorate that is 25% bigger, which means the raw vote is 78% bigger now than in 2022. There are now 11 states in my sample group where the raw vote in 2026 is at/near/above the raw vote in 2024, a Presidential year. It’s just stunning.
Faced with hardship, betrayal, and a violent assault on their communities Hispanic/Latinos are responding with patriotism and voting their asses off:
This morning NBC News has an in-depth look at this Hispanic/Latino surge (paywall, sorry):
Here’s my contribution:
Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic operative who has studied Hispanic voting trends for decades, called the early numbers a sign of a historic shift.
“If we wake up next week and we see this incredible performance of Hispanic voters, and Hispanic governors are elected in Texas and California — the sleeping giant will have been awoken,” Rosenberg said. “Hispanics will be asserting themselves in our political system to not only repel these terrible policies, but to put their allies into power. And Hispanics will have more actual governing power than at any point in American history as a bulwark against these kinds of policies.”
As we close out the 2026 Election the polling remains what is has been - encouraging for us, ugly for them (Via FiftyPlusOne):
Here is a top story in the NYT. Yes Trump has closed out the 2026 election not with strength but with desperation, ongoing failure, and chaos:
Yesterday the government of Alaska asked the Department of Justice withdraw it’s “meritless” effort to rig their Senate race:
It also must noted that the governor of Alaska is sworn in on December 7th, 2026. Which is why I am making one final ask for our Winning Alaska Fund. If our candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins (see our new interview with JKT) the governor’s race he will be sworn in in time to certify the election for Mary Peltola prior to the start of the new Congress in January. We need to help Mary Peltola and JKT win on Tuesday and then overcome what will be weeks/months of legal challenges. Both Peltola and Kreiss-Tomkins lead in recent polling, and the early vote in Alaska so far is encouraging. We are running 9 points ahead of 2024 and turnout is 25% higher than 2022:
This week Trump’s allies in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia joined Hungary’s Orban in losing their elections. These losses are an enormous blow to Trump and greater MAGA in the closing days of our election, a further confirmation of his ebbing powers. Yesterday something dramatic happened in Israel. The opposition leader, Gadi Eisenkot, left the door open to a coalition with Israel’s Arab parties that would bring a formal end to Bibi’s time in power:
Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot laid out four principles for joining his proposed coalition on Saturday, saying that “any MK” willing to accept them could become a partner in forming the next government.
Election Day results saw Yashar win 21 seats in the Knesset, with the Eisenkot bloc at 48 total; the Likud won 27 seats, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 53 overall; and the Arab parties won 19 seats.
After the completion of the vote count, Eisenkot said he intended to establish the broadest possible Zionist, statesmanlike government, bringing together elected representatives who agree on Israel’s fundamental character, national service obligations, and the need to eliminate Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in the Gaza Strip.
“Any MK willing to sign on to these principles is a potential partner in establishing a new government that will be good for Israel,” Eisenkot said. “The door to the government we establish will be open to any elected official who accepts these principles and is prepared to rise to the occasion.”
Eisenkot’s conditions for any prospective coalition partner are: The recognition of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, liberal, and egalitarian state; a commitment to the values of the Declaration of Independence; mandatory military, national, or civilian service for all Israeli citizens; and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization and acknowledgment of the obligation to destroy its military and governing power in the Gaza Strip.
Eisenkot said the principles would serve as the foundation for a broad government based on national consensus, rather than one seeking to impose the will of one political camp on another.
This latest development came amid a demonstration in Tel Aviv calling for a government of Arab and Jewish parties.
This is a remarkable and promising moment in Israeli politics. Let us hope that Gadi Eisenkot is successful in what will be perilous days ahead as he tries to form a new government. If he is successful let us also hope that this spirit of reconciliation will help our family overcome some of the difficult challenges we have faced in recent years.
Let’s end today with two of our Hopium daily mantras:
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
And…..
When it comes to Trump’s ongoing attempts to rig the elections we must be prepared - not scared.
Now, my friends, it is that time once again to…..
Winning Alaska - Donate | $34,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska Fund splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft. Help Mary Peltola and the Alaska Dems fight back against Trump’s ridiculous attempt to steal this Senate seat!
Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,640,100 raised, $2,000,000 new* stretch* goal | Watch interviews with these Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Adam Hamilton (KS), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
This is the team that’s going to flip the Senate people. Note that on 10/9 we expanded this fund to include Adam Hamilton - yes much is possible for us this year!
**Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,772,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’ people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning Iowa - Donate | $87,600 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $111,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $300,100 raised, $300,000 new stretch goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde. Help Dr. Acton fight back against these vile attacks!
Winning Texas (New) - Donate | $12,500 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Texas campaign splits a contribution evenly among Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico, and the Texas Democratic Party and its impressive chair, Kendall Scudder.
**Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $670,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $68,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $87,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $47,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below.
Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country this November, together! - Simon
