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Feeling nauseated? Foggy? Unable to focus on anything except the possibility of a constitutional crisis?
You may be suffering from prior-election trauma syndrome. You are in excellent company.
Here at News Not Noise, we have something for that: quality information. I spoke with Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, chair of the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State, about tomorrow’s election.
He has a plan for every scenario I raised, from power outages to federal agents showing up at polling places or trying to seize ballots. He explains election officials are coordinating with attorneys general, local law enforcement, and the ACLU, with lawyers assigned to specific threats, ready to respond. They’ve been preparing since the day after the 2024 election. And remember all those experienced Justice Department lawyers who were fired or left when Trump took office? He says many of them are now helping protect this election.
Can I promise nothing will go wrong? No. But hearing what’s being done may help your brain stop treating every news alert like a five-alarm fire.
In this newsletter: Democrats reel after a “betrayal” in Michigan. Courts 2, election interference 0. What federal agents might be at your polling station? The final polls have good news (and a warning) for Democrats. Tucker Carlson goes nuclear. Trump’s anti-blue-wave plan. And breaking down the most consequential and controversial ballot initiatives.
November Surprise: Michigan’s Senate race just took an unexpected turn. Rep. Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost a bitter primary to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and then endorsed him, switched her endorsement to Republican Mike Rogers. The move stunned her Democratic colleagues, her staff, andeventhe Rogers campaign. Democratsnearly unanimously𝕏condemnedit; Michigan’s Democratic Party expelled Stevens, and several of her staffersresignedin protest. Trump applauded her move. What’s behind the split? Stevens has repeatedly criticized El-Sayed’s positions on Israel, and made clear she wasupsetat beingshut outof his campaign, including a church event on Sunday. She demanded he denounce an outside PAC’s ad blaming US aid to Israel for Michigan’s high prices, which critics call antisemitic. Over the weekend El-Sayed said hedisagreedwith the ad, but did not denounce it. Stevens also criticizedEl-Sayed’s tiestocontroversial livestreamerand progressive commentator Hasan Piker, who has facedaccusations of antisemitism. Stevenswas disinvitedto a unity event planned for Sunday, butassured colleaguesshe would remain behind El-Sayed. She then appeared at a church service with his rival, Rogers, made a𝕏video in her carendorsing him, and is now actively campaigning for him. This is a stunning shift for Stevens, who during the primary campaignattackedRogers extensively. She𝕏called himthe “worst kind of politician,” warning he’d be a “𝕏rubber stamp” for Trump’s agenda, has a “𝕏repulsive” record on LGBTQ+ rights, and𝕏contributedto Michigan’shealthcare affordabilitycrisis. Earlier, she reportedly backed out of signing anop-edcriticizing Rogers’ links to antisemitism. El-Sayedbrushed offStevens’ switch, calling it a “distraction.”Galvanized: El-Sayed’s campaignannouncedit received a record $2.4 million in donations the day Stevens switched, including more than 26,000 people who donated for the first time.
Final Look: The latest New York Times/Sienapollsshow Democrats leading in six key Senate races (Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska) and effectively tied in Iowa. The most remarkable findings: El-Sayed is leading Rogers by 11 points and Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 7. It’s the first time polls show both races outside the margin of error. In all seven states, Democrats lead among independents and are more trusted on the cost of living. Still, polls are increasingly determined by data analysis and extrapolation; they can misjudge turnout or miss certain voters, and multiple polls can make the same mistake at once. One example: In 2020, Maine Sen. Susan Collins won despite trailingin every survey; polls currently show the Democrat in the race ahead of her by 6 points. And nationwide, those who made their voting decision in the last month favor Republicans by 9 points.Going to the Top: Remember last week when the Trump administrationorderedCalifornia election officials to set aside ballots from more than 20,000 people it suspects may not be citizens? It took its request to the Supreme Court — whichrejected it, giving no reason without any public dissents. California officials had refused the order, calling it unconstitutional, logistically impossible so close to Election Day, and based on unreliable data that likely includes citizens. A lower court judgeagreed, warning it would “wreak havoc” on the election.The Frontier Holds: A federal judgedismissedthe Justice Department’s attempt to block the certification of Alaska’s Senate race if incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The judgesaidthe DOJ offered “no workable plan” to determine whether the duplicate name might swing the race without violating the secret ballot, and thatit’s too closeto Election Day for changes. The DOJ plans to appeal.Stop Interfering: A federal judgeblockedthe DOJ and DHS from pressuring election officials into changing how they process ballots — including demanding officials separate ballots, purge voters, or stop processing ballots altogether. There is limited federal authority to direct how local officials administer election laws. And these efforts, the judge wrote, “are likely to have the effect of interfering with election administration and disenfranchising lawful voters.” The DOJ appealed.
Don’t Be Intimidated: The NAACPis seekingan emergency order to block the DOJ’s plan to use law enforcement agents as election monitors. The DOJ plans to deploy anunusuallyhigh 1,000 monitors,includingagents from the Bureau of Prisons, ATF, and DEA (which isalso unusual). It says none will come from ICE or the FBI, and that all will be unarmed and won’t interfere, butsuggestedit could “use” evidence of noncitizen voting uncovered during the monitoring. An Atlanticinvestigationfound most federal monitors during the primaries acted professionally, though some were election deniers. Election officials are worried but don’t expect monitors to disrupt the election or deter voters. I get into all this in the conversation at the top of the newsletter; Secretary of State Aguilar says he just met with federal election monitors.Here’s Your Grain of Salt: This story is generating too much noise to ignore, but the central claim is unverified. Tucker Carlson𝕏claimsthe Trump administration is preparing to use a nuclear weapon on a deeply buried Iranian enrichment site. He says it’s all at Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s urging. Carlson’s post has been viewed more than 74 million times as of Monday afternoon. On the one hand, Trump has repeatedlythreatenedto “annihilate” Iran, and Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)saidthe administration’s plans for new strikes against Iran are “insane.” On the other hand, Carlson is a notoriousconspiracy theoristwho hasfrequently spreadfalsehoods. He provided no evidence for this latest claim beyond a single anonymous source, and there are no other reports backing him. Carlsonbroke withTrumpand theGOPearlier this year, in large part over the war with Iran, and is fervently anti-Israel. ReportssuggestTrump had planned to strike Iran after the midterms. For what it’s worth, he previously explicitlyruled outusing nuclear weapons against Iran.The Situation: Trumpsaidhe’s “planned” how to “take care” of Iran’s nuclear sites “very quickly,” but he’s in “no rush” to end negotiations, which are ongoing in Qatar. Iran reportedlyofferedto reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets, though Trump says Iran has backed away from commitments before. No surprise, there’sreportingthat Netanyahu is urging Trump to resume strikes quickly after the midterms.
Talk About Sore Loser: Reportssuggestthe Trump administration, including senior figures like Stephen Miller and Russell Vought, are preparing for ways Trump canpush the limitsof his executive powers to continue his agenda even if Democrats win control of Congress. He’s already used his powers, including over trade and federal agencies, in unprecedented — and insome instancesunconstitutional — ways, as with tariffs. His veto power also allows him to override lawmakers unless they have a two-thirds majority. Trumpsaidhe may…