“People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook. Well, I’m not a crook.”~ Richard Nixon, November 17. 1973**“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme” ~ attributed to Mark Twain****“It’s like déjà vu all over again.” ~Yogi Berra**
Shockingly, I am happy with the Jets’ draft. Although they are notorious for ‘winning’ a lot more off-seasons than regular seasons.
Remember--all politics ( and policy) is ultimately local. This matters
‘If America’s So Rich, How’d It Get So Sad? Or: How the 2020s broke our brains’
Derek ThompsonThis will get worse
Market rallying this morning on the concept of a plan that negotiations- which have gone nowhere-are close to being likely to be scheduled.
KEY THEMESSomething to watch- Michigan Sentiment final at 10am expected to confirm record low 47.6
US-Iran ceasefire its third week ( and 53rd day since bombing began) with no resolution in sight, transforming what began as a geopolitical crisis into a structural supply shock that’s forcing systematic repricing across global markets.
Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel, headed for a 19% weekly jump—the largest since the conflict’s initial outbreak in early March—as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and President Trump maintains his naval blockade of Iranian ports despite saying he has “all the time in the world.” A third US aircraft carrier arrived in the Middle East on Thursday, underscoring Washington’s commitment to maintaining the blockade of Iranian oil exports.
Israel is awaiting US approval to resume strikes aimed at destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure and returning the country to the “dark ages,” according to Defense Minister Katz .
China has kept its massive crude stockpiles intact despite a collapse in Middle Eastern flows due to the Iran war . Emerging Asia faces heightened food cost pressure as the lingering US-Iran war strains fertilizer supply amid the upcoming planting season, with limited availability threatening to dampen crop yields and impact food prices, according to Fitch Ratings .
JPMorgan warned that a massive energy-price spike will be needed to fix a gaping hole in supply, calling it “simple math” as the Strait of Hormuz standstill continues
Dollar is extending its safe-haven rally, Euro natural gas is on track for a 16% weekly gain as LNG supply disruptions cascade through global energy markets.
Central banks are pivoting hawkish: the ECB is now expected to hike rates in June before reversing course in 2027, while swap markets price 65 basis points of tightening by year-end as inflation expectations surge and growth forecasts deteriorate.
Tech shares are rallying on strong earnings from Intel and SAP; Intel +29% in premarket trading on a blockbuster sales forecast, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing jumped 5% in Taipei after regulators eased limits on single-stock fund holdings.
US considers offering currency swap lines to allies in the Gulf and Asia- although no signs of stress in dollar funding markets yet.
Gold fell 0.69% to $4,691.50 per ounce, while silver collapsed to $75.23, down 1.1%, indicating severe risk-off deleveraging is overwhelming any safe-haven bid in precious metals.
EU banned imports of refined copper and platinum from Russia in its new sanctions package, while also widening Russian sanctions to LNG maintenance and terminal services.
Bitcoin traded at $77,666, failing to sustain its rally and continuing to behave as a risk-off liquidation candidate rather than a safe haven during the geopolitical crisis
Middle East credit default swaps rose amid ongoing US-Iran tensions policy bets.
This week’s retail-sales report was the strongest in three years.The problem is that the higher sales are due to higher gasoline prices, which leaves Americans with fewer dollars to spend elsewhere. Last month, sales at gasoline stations increased by 15.5%.
FLOWS AND POSITIONING
Equities are proving more resilient to rising oil than in previous supply shocks, with the beta between energy prices and equities declining even as oil has risen above levels seen since the ceasefire was announced .
Cross-asset volatility is accelerating as historical correlations break down, with precious metals selling off alongside risk assets despite the geopolitical premium; traditional safe-haven assets diverging, with global bonds selling off hard despite equity weakness, while the dollar rallies alongside oil even as emerging market currencies and equities crater.
**Markets remain sensitive to any fresh news regarding the Middle East.**The BBDXY Index fell to lows of the day in response to a Pakistani official making somewhat reassuring comments. “We are continuing mediation efforts and trust in the possibility of achieving the required progress.” However, the same official also admitted that a state of uncertainty regarding the second round of talks between Iran and the US prevails.Meanwhile, the longer the Iran war lasts, the largest negative economic consequences, especially for countries that rely on imported energy, such as Germany. Ifo President Fuest warned today that Germany is at the beginning of stagflation period with inflation rising and economic activity declining.
Some geopolitical experts believe that reaching a compromise with Iran could be difficult, as it’s not entirely clear who is in charge these days. The NYT reported that Mojtaba Khamenei is “mentally sharp and engaged,” but severely injured. He is managing the country through a “board” of trusted IRGC commanders. Many would read that as was previously predicted: he would be a façade for a more militaristic IRGC led nation. Also note that several Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, stressed that their country is united, rejecting President Trump’s claims of a rift in the leadership in Tehran.
Iran Keeps Loading Oil Onto Tankers Even as US Blocks Exit RouteWar Squeezes Global Mining as Diesel and Acid Supplies TightenTrump Suggests He’d Be Open to Alternative Probe of Fed’s PowellChina exporters raising prices on range of consumer goods as surging oil prices drives up costs (Bloomberg)Iran has been laying more mines in Strait of Hormuz this week, US tracking closely and developing plans to counter (
Axios,CNN)US military deploys a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, the highest count in over 20 years (
CNN,Washington Post)Trump says Israel and Lebanon will extend ceasefire by three weeks, allowing for talks on long-term peace accord (
Axios,Bloomberg)Western officials, diplomat say Iran’s regime appears politically strengthened now, becoming more stable and hardline (
NBC)Iran war depletes US supplies of critical weapons, hindering readiness against adversaries like Russia and China (
NY Times)Trump says government will probe actions of banks in response to LA wildfires, singles out
Wells Fargo(Bloomberg)White House officials concerned depletion of munitions in Iran war may impede contingency plans to defend Taiwan (
link)Trump invites Russian President Putin to G20 summit in Miami this December, unclear whether he will attend (
Washington Post)Internal Pentagon email suggests punishing NATO allies for insufficient support in the Iran war (
Reuters)@SkyNewsArabia_B: Israeli Channel 12: In Israel, assessments are increasing that the resumption of fighting with Iran is approaching……Israeli Channel 12: The Israeli goal, in the event of resuming fighting with Iran, is to deliver a painful strike focused on infrastructure and the energy sector; Israel/US are aiming for a short military move against Iran, with the aim of avoiding an exchange of blows that will last for many week; despite the extension of the ceasefire, preparations are underway for the possibility of a larger military op i…
