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I call balls and strikes ⚾ — because politics needs referees, not cheerleaders.
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Yes, Donald Trump is deeply unpopular with the average American voters.
Yes, historic midterm election trends suggest that — almost no matter what — Republicans in the House and Senate would lose ground in the midterms.
But, even with those caveats, I think we — aka the collective political class — is missing (or, at the very least underrating) the key reason why Republicans are on the verge of losing the Senate majority: They have fielded a uniquely bad set of candidates.
In fact, of the 14 competitive Senate races on the map this November, Republicans have bad-to-middling candidates in 10 of them! That’s more than 70%!
And that matters — especially in Senate races. While votes for the House tend to be more about party than person, Senate contests — by dint of the amount spent on them and the higher profiles of the candidates — tend to be more personality-driven. As in, people know the two people running for Senate and make an assessment, at some level, of whether they are a good or bad candidate.
Not all bad candidates are created equal, of course. There are the truly awful (Ken Paxton!) and the merely mediocre (Jon Husted!).
Who fits where? Well, I ranked the 14 Republicans running in competitive races — from best to worst! So the 14th ranked candidate below is the BEST Republican candidate running in a competitive Senate race. And the #1 ranked candidate is the worst.
