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Mideast leaders are racing to avert a humanitarian crisis after President Trump threatened to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure within 48 hours unless the regime reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He used the word “obliterate” to make sure no one missed the point.
Then today, Trump punted. He’s giving Iran five more days.
Critics are calling it a TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out. But others note that the troops Trump just deployed have not even reached the region yet. Five days gets them there. Iranian officials, for their part, deny that any negotiations are happening at all. Either way, this looks less like a pause than a runway for something larger.
In today’s newsletter, we explain how Trump is hedging his bets and what Iran is threatening in retaliation — including steps that could cripple Gulf nations. It’s a reminder that the US is not likely to face the worst consequences of this war.
There is plenty of non-Iran news today, too. The White House is deploying ICE agents to airports who, according to NNN readers on the ground, are “standing around” and “doing a whole lot of nothing.” But they are empowered to detain people and their presence alone is unnerving many travelers. One bright note: Trump ordered ICE agents at airports not to wear masks.
Also today: Trump rejected a plan to end the DHS shutdown. A runway collision at LaGuardia killed two. Plainclothes men grabbed a crying woman at SFO. The Supreme Court appears open to a new limit on mail-in voting. Georgia arrests a woman for a self-medicated abortion. The White House installed a new Christopher Columbus statue on the grounds this week — assembled from fragments of one torn down in Baltimore. And we remember Robert Mueller, whose legacy reflects the country judging it.
Telephone: Trump on Monday claimed Iran reached out to make a deal. Hesaid Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are negotiatingwith a “top” Iranian leader onan arrangementto allow the Strait of Hormuz to be “jointly controlled” by him and “whoever the Ayatollah is” after a “regime change.” He also said that Iran hasagreed not to“have nuclear weapons anymore.” Two problems: Iran doesnot currently have nuclear weapons. And no Iranian official has publicly agreed to give up any ambitions to develop them. Iran flatlydenies all this. The regime says it has had no contact with the Trump administration, insists the Strait willremain closed to its enemies, andaccused Trump of spreading“fake news” to stabilize oil markets and buy time for US troops to get into position.**Full Steam Ahead?**In fact, two Marine units ofroughly 5,000 troopsareen route to the region; elements of the 82nd Airborne arepreparing to deployand the UK issending air defense systemsto the Gulf. None of that signals de-escalation.Diplomacy Attempts: Allied nations appear to be trying to pull both sides back from further confrontation. Iran on Mondaydid acknowledge“initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions.”Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman. For nowhave allreportedly engaged in talkswith US and Iranian officialsTrump sounds pleased withwhat he called “very good and productive conversations,” which he said “will continue throughout the week.” But he warned if no deal is reached in the next five days,the US will“just keep bombing our little hearts out.”Bet On That: USstocks are up and oil is downafter Trump’s announcement. That is exactly what you’d expect if the goal was to calm markets, not close a deal.
Troubling Tea Leaves:Trump ally and informal foreign policy advisor Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Sundayurged Trumpto “take Kharg Island,” Iran’s key oil export hub, claiming the US “did Iwo Jima, we can do this.” Graham’s comments drew blowback from Republicans, who noted the battle for Iwo Jima cost the lives of almost 7,000 US troops. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL)𝕏accused Grahamof treating US service members “as if they are expendable cattle.”Water Wars: US officials directing this war go home to air conditioned capitals with clean water and easy access to power. Residents of Gulf nations don’t have that luxury. Iran warned that if the US attacks its infrastructure, it willretaliate by striking energy infrastructure and. Gulf nations are among thedesalination plantsthroughout the region. Many Gulf nations haveno permanent riversand rely on desalination plants forover 90% of their drinking water. These plants underpin everything, fromhospitals, power plants, anddata centers, tofilling the tapsin Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Dohaworld’s most water-stressed, and aCIA report warnedthat losing desalination there “could have more serious consequences than the loss of any other industry of commodity.” The countries would becast into what the UN definesas “absolute water scarcity.” Intentionally disabling crucial civilian infrastructure, like desalination plants,could amount to a war crime. OneUS professor of the Middle East said“the political and psychological scars” of such attacks “would be of a magnitude that I can’t quite imagine.”
This Won’t Fly: The Trump administration on Mondaydeployed up to 150 ICE agentsto more than a dozen major airports across the country. No one, including administration officials,is exactly clear why. Some agents arearmed. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Sundayinsisted ICE agents have sufficient trainingto help TSA agents run security lines, saying “they know how to run the X-ray machines.” But White House Border Czar Tom Homan, who justhours before the deployment admittedhe was still “working on the plan,” said agentswere not trainedto use X-ray machines. Instead, Homan said ICE agents would help with “certain parts of security,”such as“covering exits” to “make sure people don’t go through.”**Where:**ICE agents have𝕏reportedly been sentto airports in Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Ft. Myers, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, and San Juan.**Detentions:**Trumpsaid the agents are empowered toarrest “all Illegal Immigrants who have come into our Country.”Hard At Work:Reportsandpicturesof ICE agents standing around, seemingly doing nothing, have alreadybegun spreadingon social media. “They’re in the way,” oneworker at Newark airport said. One passengersaid ICE agentsare “making it worse.”**Critics:**The ACLUcondemned the move, noting that “never in our history has a president deployed armed agents to the airport to inspire fear among families.” The president of the union representing many TSA agentsarguesthey “deserve to be paid, not replaced by untrained, armed agents who have shown how dangerous they can be.”Protecting****Your Privacy:If you’re going to travel and are worried about encountering or interacting with ICE, consider reviewingthis guideof your rights, thesetwoguideson protecting your data from government agencies, and thischeckliston protecting your data from ICE specifically.
Art of the No Deal: Republicans handed Trump a deal to end the DHS shutdown. He turned it down. Sen. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD)reportedly told TrumpDemocrats would agree to fund all of DHS except for ICE, with ICE fundingto be secured through a process called reconciliation, which would allow Republicans to pass bills by a simple majority. But Trump on Truth Socialinsisted the GOP refuseto “make any deal” with Democrats unless they agree to pass the Save America Act, which Democrats are largely united against. (That’s theshow-your-papers bill; Trump on Mondaysaid Republicans should pass it“for Jesus.”)
Still Waiting: The DHS shutdown has causedsecurity lines at multiple airportstostretch out of the airport buildingsthemselves. One passenger who’d been waiting in Atlanta airport for three hourssaid it was“total chaos.” There are reports ofsix hour linesin Atlanta. Over400 TSA agents havequit.
Tragedy: A plane carrying over 70 passengers collided with a rescue-and-firefighting vehicle on the runway at LaGuardia Airport Sunday evening, killing the pilot and co-pilot andhospitalizingdozens of others, including a flight attendantthrown from the plane. An air traffic controller had cleared the vehicle to cross a runway torespond to a report of an odoron another plane, and can be heardfrantically calling for the vehicle to stopas an Air Canada flightbarreled toward itat roughly 100mph. The plane struck the truck, severing the cockpit. “We were dealing with an emergency,” theair traffic controller said. “I messed up.” “Everybody just jolted out of their seats,”one passengerrecalled. “People were bleeding.” The crash isn’t directly linked to the shutdown; air traffic controllers aren’t affected. The Federal Aviation Administration has beenstruggling with chronic shortagesof air traffic controllers for years, though LGA is not one of the worst-affected airports. “This has been happening for years,” aformer Transportation Department inspector general said. “I don’t know how many wakeup calls the [FAA] needs.”Disturbing: Two men presumed to be plainclothed ICE agents were filmed on Sunday detaining a woman traveling with her young daughter in San Francisco International Airport.[Videos show](https://www.instagram.com/…
