Hi everyone,
In case you missed last night’s Q&A for paid subscribers, I have annexed it below.
Besides lots of good questions, I gave a briefing on the prospects for negotiations. The fact is that the US and Israel assassinated presumptive deal makers like Khamenei and Larijani. Now, the guys who really call the shots are “the hardliners of the hardliners” within the IRGC. I lined them up on a slide more than a month ago and now the WSJ has also seen the light. Here they are:
There’s far too much talk about speaker Qhalibaf, not least from the Trump administration. It’s pure fantasy. At the end of the day, it’s the above gentlemen calling the shots from the shadows. I suppose there’s an outside chance Trump can do a deal with them, but the price will be steep. It’s not just a matter of agreeing about “nuclear dust” as Trump wants the world to believe.
Unfortuntately Vahidi, Zolghadr and Rezeai are not afraid of war. They see themselves as the guardians of the Islamic revolution. They believe their sacrifice will bring the return of the Mahdi closer. They very likely think that Khamenei and Larijani were too lenient and that was the cause of the war. In Islamabad JD will have to come up with something really special that Qhalibaf can sell to them!
As I said, next week I’ll be in Ukraine. I’ll do a live Q&A from Kyiv most likely on Wednesday night, so stay tuned for that one. I’m looking forward to going back. I’ll also do a special tour in Ukraine, but I’ll leave that as a cliff hanger for you…:-)
You can support my trip and my content by becoming a paid subscriber. My heartfelt gratitude to all of you who have already decided to become paid subscribers. I really appreciate you support.
Anyhow, give the Q&A a listen below.
Cheers,
Jacob
