Hey everyone,
Getting close to those New Year’s celebrations, I thought I’d leave you with a few words.
Firstly, if you didn’t already watch the FiveStack Year in Review with greats , , and yours truly, I suggest you catch it right here. For me it was a highlight of 2025 to get to know these brilliant truth tellers and night watchmen. I can promise you one thing: the garage band will stick together and work with even more commitment in 2026:-)
Secondly, I’ll leave you with a few pointers for 2026:
Will US democracy survive? I suggest you follow my former US colleagues who have gathered around “the Steady State” and monitor the situation closely. Their report on the decline and risks regarding US democracy can be found underneath. 2026 will be absolutely crucial and at this point in time, I’d say it’s hard to come up with a probability higher than 40% that we can call the US a democracy by this time next year. That probability can go up or down, but at this point in time data point strongly in the wrong direction.
Will NATO break down formally? 2025 has seen a breakdown of the Transatlantic relationship. The values and the common threat perception that has held “the most succesful military alliance in history” together are gone. The US violates the NATO Treaty at every turn, most blatantly by threatening to take Greenland away from one of its presumed “allies” by force. Active interference in the domestic politics of NATO member states is also a serious violation. Look no further than the Trump NSS to see that NATO can only be called an alliance in name. Europeans and Canada won’t be seen to break a treaty alliance. This is why the masquerade continues. Just before Christmas Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, gave a speech at “Turning Point USA” where she labelled “NATO warmongers”. We have to assume she doesn’t see USA as part of NATO in spite of the formal membership.
Will Europe be able to rise to the occasion? Things haven’t been moving as fast through 2025 as I would have liked to see, but important steps have been taken. We need clearer political leadership and increased political will. As democracies were too afraid of our own shadows, but this is the time where we need to assert ourselves. Take the fight to the radical right, instead of weariness. This is not the time to think about right or left wing. We’re in a crucial fight for our democracies and all democratic forces must unite!
War continues in Ukraine (watch the discussion between Zev, Dean, Lev and I).
Will China take Taiwan? Most casual observers tend to say “Trump is repositioning his military assets to the Asia Pacific theater to deter China”. There is no evidence to suggest that. On the contrary, we’ve seen Trump state that he has “a good relationship with Xi” in response to the current historical Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. So no deterrence and the risk of Chinese aggression is increasing. Fundamentally, Trump, Xi and Putin share the same world view. They want their spheres of influence. If Putin can get Ukraine, will he save Venezuela? No. If Xi can get Taiwan, will he save Venezuela? No. If Trump can get Greenland and Venezuela, will he save Ukraine and Taiwan? No. This is how the three predators see it, ladies and gentlemen:
So there you go. Unfortunately this is what we’re faced with for 2026, so fasten your seatbelts and put on your battle-rattle!
I could keep going all afternoon, but now it’s New Years! Go and enjoy and prepare yourselves for battle.
Thirdly, the book that I’ve been writing along with my friend Steffen McGhie is coming out in February. It’s about the twin threat from Trump and Putin and what it means for Danish and European security. Needless to say, it’s written from an intelligence perspective. We’ll start dropping a few cliff hangers in the new year:-)
Fourthly, I’ve decided that my briefs and writing won’t be behind paywall. It’s too important to get the word out to everyone. I hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber anyway. That’s the way to ensure the goodies coming.
Now go enjoy a glass of champagne. Cheers, Happy New Year and as usual stay safe out there!
