Intel Brief, Putin rattles nuclear sabre
Hey everyone, Just as I came off the live Q&A last night, I realised Putin had been rattling the nuclear sabre once again. This time by testing the Sarmat missile, which according to Putin is “four times more powerful than anything Western militaries possess”.
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Hey everyone,
Just as I came off the live Q&A last night, I realised Putin had been rattling the nuclear sabre once again. This time by testing the Sarmat missile, which according to Putin is “four times more powerful than anything Western militaries possess”.
The Sarmat has been tested before, but all previous test have failed so all in all this “Wunderwaffe” has been a bit of a joke so far. Yesterday’s test was hailed as succesful by the Russians, but I haven’t seen it verified. Stranger things have happened in the past than the Kremlin presenting “alternative facts”. It could be just posturing!
Anyway, it’s quite telling about Russia’s problems in Ukraine and Putin’s domestic situation that he resorts to Sarmat glorification just a few days after the spectacular show of weakness at the Victory Day parade in the Red Square, after more and more Ukrainian drones and missiles striking deep inside Russia and with domestic criticism of the performance of Russia’s Army in Ukraine. Putin cannot let that image stand and that’s where the Sarmat comes in handy.
In terms of nuclear deterrence it doesn’t have a significant impact whether the launch was succesful or not. The US was notified about the test and it doesn’t significantly alter the balance. Putin’s show means he sees a need to thump his chest and that’s about it. He hopes the domestic and international audience buys his nuclear bluff and that the Trump administration will put pressure on president Zelensky and the Ukrainians.
Really, the only thing Putin has got going for him is US sanctions relief that kicked in at Trump started the war in Iran late February. Russia’s oil exports jumped from approx €200 million a day in January to more than €300 million a day in April. For Putin that’s a good war subsidy amidst his troubles!
For those of you who didn’t catch the Q&A last night I have annexed it below. Lots of good questions came through and I hope you enjoyed the session. I’ll be back next week with another session. You can watch and participate by becoming a paid subscriber.
Cheers,
Jacob