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Trump says gas prices are “not very high” and the war in Iran is going “swimmingly.” The 𝕏memes disagree. It’s Friday, it’s 2026, and the gap between what officials say is happening and what is actually happening continues to grow.
Secretary Hegseth says he’s restored respect for our soldiers in uniform. But I keep hearing from families of those deployed in the Middle East that their loved ones are underresourced. The image at the top of the newsletter shows a meal one of your deployed family members was served daily in Qatar. Respect starts with the basics. Food is one of them.
Even MAGA is starting to notice the gap. Wired reports that more Trump supporters now question whether the Butler, PA assassination was real or staged. When your own base stops believing the official story, something has shifted. (See Tucker Carlson’s antichrist comments below.)
Don’t tell Wall Street. CNBC reports the NASDAQ has seen its longest winning streak since 1992. Traders have theories: The AI boom, war winding down, congressional gridlock blocking regulation, anticipated rate cuts. Everyone’s got one. Fewer seem to have theories for what happens next. But that’s a problem for a different quarter.
Here’s what we know: The investment class is betting on an America that looks nothing like the one most people are living in. But the memes are free, the jokes are sharp, and nobody is buying what they’re selling. Not literally. They’re buying groceries on credit. But you know what I mean.
In today’s newsletter: Trump says Iran deal could come in days. The Strait reopens. The $20 billion question. Anthropic, too good to ban. Road rage, federal edition. The Pentagon’s religious theater problem. Oil wins again. Alcohol and sexual assault allegations at the Labor Department. Some good election news for Democrats. And men: Your turn.
**End in Sight?**Trumptold AxiosFriday that he expects US and Iranian negotiators to meet this weekend and reach a deal “in the next day or two.” Trump claimed the US would get all Iran’s enriched uranium — or,in his words, all “Nuclear ‘Dust’” —and an“unlimited” moratorium on future uranium enrichment. He also said he expects Israel to stop attacks on Lebanon andthat this deal will“make Israel safe”. There is plenty that’s still unclear:Will a deal includeallof Iran’s enriched uranium or just the highly enriched material; for how long will Iran agree to stop enrichment; and is this deal as close as Trump says it is?**Extension?**While they’re working on a deal, negotiators areconsidering extendingthe current ceasefire by another two weeks. The current deadline is Tuesday.Timeline: Some leaders in the Middle East and Europeworry it will takesix months for the US and Iran to reach a peace deal.
**Get That Oil Flowing:**Iran on Fridaydeclared the Strait of Hormuzis “completely open” after Israel and Lebanonagreed to a 10-day ceasefirebeginning Thursday. But trafficremains reduced. Trump said he won’t lift theUS blockade of Iran’s portsuntil“our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.” Meaning he wants the larger deal finalized. The blockade hasprevented 13 shipsfrom docking at Iran’s ports, increasing pressure on Iran’s already squeezed economy.Money Talks: What’s suddenly bringing Iran to the table? The Trump administration is reportedlyconsidering granting Iranaccess to $20 billion in frozen assets in return for its stockpile of enriched uranium. The money would be released over years, and as conditions are met. Trumpdenied that thisis part of the deal andinsisted that“no money will change hands.” Recall Trump excoriated the Obama administration for releasing funds to Iran as part of its nuclear deal, whichTrump calledthe “worst deal ever.” Howmuch did that deal release? $1.7 billion.Right Direction: Oil pricesplummeted after Iran said the Strait was open. But don’t expect falling prices yet. The International Energy Agency on Fridaywarned thatit will take two years to bounce back from the hit on energy output caused by the war’s disruptions. And if you’re planning a European vacation beware. The IEA alsosaid that“several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks.” Trumpdismissedrising consumer prices as “fake inflation because of the fuel, the energy prices,” which he said will be “short-term.”**Peace In Lebanon?**Trump on Thursdaysaid he plans to invitethe leaders of Lebanon and Israel to the White House for negotiations. They already agreed to a 10-day ceasefire that seems to beholding despite tensions. Trumpon Friday announcedthat Israel is “PROHIBITED” from “bombing Lebanon any longer.… Enough is enough!!!” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists thatIsraeli troops“are not leaving” the new “expanded security zone” in southern Lebanon. Thetruce allowsIsrael to “take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks.” Israellaunched a strike Friday morning, killing one,arguing it was in self-defenseagainst Hezbollah. Hezbollah, which condemned the negotiations and previously refused to give up aggression,signaled a“cautious commitment” to the 10-day truce. In the respite from brutal conflict, some of the 1.2 milliondisplaced Lebanese— one-fifth of the entire population — on Fridaytried returning home.Tick-Tock: Republican Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC)on Friday saidthey will likely vote against authorizing the war with Iran beyond the 60-day mark. Thus far, both senators have joined the Republican majority inrejectingDemocratic attempts to reign in Trump’s war with Iran. With the 60-day deadlineless than two weeks awayandcosts mounting, they’re signaling that support will not last much longer.
Restart: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Fridaymet administration officialsat the White House. In March the Trump administration named the Anthropic a “supply chain risk” after the AI developerinsisted the Pentagon accept some safety guardrailswhen using its technology. To fight the blacklist, Anthropiclaunched multiple lawsuitsandhired Trump-friendly lobbyists. Trump officials — including at theTreasuryandOffice of Management and Budget— want access to Anthropic’sdangerously powerful new model, Mythos, badly enough to re-engage. One sourcetold Axiosthat the US government depriving itself of this new model would be “grossly irresponsible” and “a gift to China.”Melting Away: ICE’s acting director, Todd Lyons, onThursday announcedhe will resign, effective at the end of May andmove to the private sector.Lyons was reportedlyhospitalized multiple timesfor stress-related issues during his tenure. Unnamed sources told Politico thatpressure from the White House— specifically Stephen Miller — was so intense that staff once brought a portable defibrillator to Lyon in case he needed medical intervention. Lyonsdefended agents using masks,placed a record number of peoplein detention, andrefused to apologizefor the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. Under his leadership, ICE agentskilled and injureddozens of people, and dozens more died in detention; 2025 was the agency’sdeadliest yearin over two decades. Hesaid on Fridaythat he’s leaving to spend more time with his family. We’ll see if this leads to a shift in ICE’s tactics.Federal Road Rage: A Minnesota prosecutor on Thursday charged an ICE agent with assault, a charge Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriartysaid isthe first of its kind. ICE agent Gregory Donnell Morgan Jr allegedlydrew his weapon on two civiliansafter a conflict over passing on the shoulder of the road. Morgantold investigatorshe “feared for his safety and the safety of others.”
Pulp Fiction: The holy war rhetoric keeps heating up. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsethon Thursday calledthe “Trump-hating press” “Pharisees,” a group that plotted against Jesus. The day before heled a prayer servicequoting a passagealmost word-for-wordthat wasn’t a prayer butrather a monologue from the filmPulp Fiction. (Did someone rely on AI for their remarks?) Pope Leo XIV, this week visiting Africa, againcriticized leaders whouse religion to justify war. “The world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants,”he said. Trump on Thursdayinsisted he has“nothing against” the Pope and is “not fighting with him.” He then falsely claimed the Pope “says Iran can have a nuclear weapon” andignored a reporter who pointed outthat’s not true. “I’m all about the Gospel,”Trump said. “I’m about it as much as anybody can be.” For years,MAGA supporterslike Tucker Carlsoninsisted Trump was protectedby God. Now Carlson is suggesting Trumpmay actually be the antichrist.Who’s Watching: Congress…
