Morning all. In my posts over the last few days we’ve discussed how the late polling in the 2026 election was showing Trump dropping further and hitting new lows for the cycle. These polls also showed the generic ballot opening up and getting better for us. As we’ve discussed here it was always the likely scenario in a wave year that at the end voters would break to us and away from them. There is now a lot of data to suggest that is what is happening.
Two high-quality polls released this morning also found this encouraging dynamic manifesting in their data. First up - the venerable New York Times poll:
Here’s the NYT summary of the poll:
President Trump’s approval rating hit a new low just a few weeks before the midterm elections, driven down by broad disapproval of his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and high gas prices, according to a new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University.
Just 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved. That is his lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll. More than two-thirds of independent voters said that they disapproved of the way he has handled his job as president.
Likely voters said that they preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts in the final Times/Siena national poll before the midterm elections, a slight improvement for Democrats since last month. The metric is widely seen as a strong indicator of political momentum.
The national political environment is bleak for Republicans. Americans broadly disapprove of economic conditions under the Trump administration, with three-quarters rating the economy as fair or poor. A majority of voters blame Mr. Trump for the decline: 69 percent disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 65 percent disapprove of his handling of the war in Iran and nearly three-quarters disapprove of his handling of gas prices, which are above $4 a gallon.
A remarkably similar summary to what we read in the NBC, ABC/WaPo, and Reuters/Ipsos poll summaries over the past few days. Everybody is seeing the same thing, and interpreting it the same way.
The second poll released this morning comes from G.Elliot Morris/Strength In Numbers/Verasight. It also finds movement away from them, and towards us, just like in all these other polls:
Here’s the summary of the poll:
Generic ballot: Democrats lead 52–41 among registered voters (D+10 unrounded), and 54–42 among likely voters (D+12). These are both new highs for our poll, and higher even than the Democratic Party’s margin in generic ballot polls ahead of the 2018 and 2006 midterm elections.Job approval: 34% approve / 62% disapprove (net −28 before rounding), essentially unchanged from September’s record low of −30. 50% strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, vs 16% who strongly approve.Immigration: Trump’s net approval on immigration fell five points to −16, a new low. Border security (−6) and deportations (−18) are also at new lows, too. Eight of 13 issues are at series lows.Party trust: Democrats lead on 10 of 13 issues and tie Republicans on deportations. They are now ahead on immigration (D+2), and the GOP’s edge on border security is down to seven points from 22 in May 2025. Democrats lead by 13 on voters’ own most important problem (47–35), tying May for their widest margin in our tracker.The midterms as a referendum: 40% say their vote for Congress will mostly be a statementagainstTrump, vs 21% who say it will be a statement of support. When given a binary choice 58% want a Congress that acts as a check on the president, vs 25% who want one that helps him pass his agenda.Top problem: 39% name prices and inflation the single most important problem facing the country, tying May for the highest share we have recorded. 63% put it in their top three.Impeachment: 51% think there are grounds for Congress to impeach Trump, vs 39% who don’t. 50% would support the next House impeaching him in 2027, while 38% would oppose it.
A lot of wows and holy shits in this data.
Here are the generic ballots we’ve seen this past week. +11 Dem means the likelihood of a big blue wave is far greater today:
We also must note now that the visualization of the data we’ve seen over the past week consistently looks like this:
And this:
The signs of Trump’s titanic failure and historic repudiation are all around us. The inflation numbers last week were horrific, with one measure, PPI, coming in more than * double* the forecasts. Job growth has slowed. Interest rates of all kinds have soared. His failed war in the Middle East is spreading and getting worse. Diesel is at an all time high. Fertilizer, gas and utility costs have surged. Health care costs are going up for all Americans, and care will be harder to get for everyone too from the barbaric cuts Trump and his allies made to our health care system. Global markets view him and his economic team as over their head buffoons. He is bending the knee to Putin. Consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan survey is the lowest in over 65 years:
We cannot forget for one moment that this huge rejection of Trump and Trumpism has come despite their enormous ad spend, his ferocious campaigning, the proven power of the right-wing eco-chamber, and their growing control over legacy and social media. Even with all these structural advantages we are competing deep into red states and red places we’ve struggled to win in for decades. Objectively it is astonishing where we are now; astonishing of how much of an opportunity we have now to take power away from them all across the country; astonishing how Trump has failed to heed the warnings and course correct over the past twelves months; astonishing at what an unbelievable f-uck up and failure he is, how impotent, weak, desperate and pathetic he has become.
But he we are now, my friends. With the election we all wanted to have emerging right in front of us. So we need to work doubly hard now, dig a little deeper to support our candidates and party committees, drive the early vote to make the big blue wave even bigger, and…….
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