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JPMorgan’s first bitcoin forecast reads as a bullish 10% annual call, but the fine print shows an institution that has accepted bitcoin’s returns while still treating its risk as too unpredictable to model alongside everything else.
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In Today’s Email:
**What Matters:JPMorgan Prices Bitcoin’s Next Decade 👀Case Study:Blockchain Association Pushes GENIUS Act Limits 🔎Governance & Features:**World Pitches Identity to Banks 🌐
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WHAT MATTERS
State of play: JPMorgan Asset Management has issued its first 10-year bitcoin forecast at 10% annually, nearly double gold’s 5.5%, yet still keeps BTC out of its core portfolio models, signaling Wall Street is pricing the asset before it is willing to own it.
The firm’s 31st Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report pegs bitcoin volatility at 55% and places it in a separate, smaller covariance matrix against a subset of assets.
JPMorgan said it could revise this approach as volatility falls and correlations stabilize, aided by clearer regulation, deeper liquidity, and better price discovery.
The forecast lands amid roughly $50B in 2026 digital asset inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT drawing $665M on Monday, its largest single-day haul since October 2025.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed the move but called the 55% volatility estimate too high, citing 15 years of steadily declining volatility.
Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor also praised the report, framing it as Wall Street finally running the numbers on bitcoin.
Why it matters: Once a bitcoin forecast sits in JPMorgan’s capital market assumptions, allocators and consultants who build portfolios from that report have a sanctioned number to justify adding BTC.
Our take: The 10% figure matters less than the 55% volatility input, since that number decides whether bitcoin gets a real allocation or a token one. JPMorgan is hedging, endorsing the return while setting volatility high enough to keep exposure small.
For builders and investors: Watch whether next year’s report cuts the volatility estimate and folds BTC into the main matrix, because that is when model-driven capital actually moves.
CASE STUDY
**State of play: **The Blockchain Association backed Treasury’s plan for implementing the GENIUS’s stablecoin issuance rules while argues the draft stretches liability and compliance duties beyond what Congress wrote, especially for DeFi and permissionless markets.
The group wants a narrower definition of digital asset service providers, excluding self-custody software, validators, and firms trading only their own assets.
It argued criminal liability for “knowing participation” in unlawful issuance should require actual knowledge and substantial assistance, not ordinary secondary-market trading.
Rather than open-ended diligence on foreign issuers they have no ties to, providers should be able to rely on regulators’ public prohibition lists.
The letter also asked Treasury to drop its “reasonably believes” test for locating US counterparties, noting permissionless users often reveal nothing beyond a wallet address.
The comment period closed Monday with 123 submissions, ahead of the law’s expected January 2027 effective date.
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INSIGHTS
**State of play: **A Coinbase and The Block study finds stablecoins now move over $400M an hour, with 73% of volume settling outside US banking hours, a strong case for always-on money made by a party with an obvious stake in the conclusion.
Adjusted transfer volume has quadrupled since early 2023 to $891B in Q3, putting stablecoins on pace for $1.5T per quarter by end of 2027.
A $200 USDC remittance on Base costs about 86% less than traditional rails, while faster settlement frees up working capital for businesses.
Some 293M addresses hold stablecoins, topping the combined American Express and Discover cardholder base, though addresses do not equal unique users.
Seven of the ten largest US banks have tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement, and the remaining three have signaled plans to follow.
The report pitches stablecoins as the payment rail for AI agents, citing McKinsey’s estimate of $3T to $5T in agent-mediated commerce by 2030.
FEATURES & GOVERNANCE UPDATE
**State of play: **World has launched its first industry-specific World ID suite for banks and made its Zoom deepfake check generally available, but the pitch arrives with no named bank customer, no pricing, and verified users stuck near 18M since March.
Unveiled by co-founder Alex Blania at Money20/20, the suite bundles the World ID app, World ID for Zoom, and World ID for Agents, also called AgentKit.
World ID for Zoom exits a beta that began in April, and developer Tools for Humanity has joined Zoom’s independent software vendor exchange program.
Design partners include OpenExchange, Bain Capital, VanEck Funds, and Outtake, though their role is limited to exploring how the technology fits finance.
World cited a Deloitte forecast that US AI-enabled fraud losses could reach $40B by 2027, up from an estimated $12.3B in 2023.
The launch follows World Money’s September debut and a $52.5M WLD token sale in July carrying a one-year lockup.
Other notable feature updates:
Papertrade𝕏saysPAPER will not be transferable.Lighter𝕏launchesbinary options on Lighter Core.Frax𝕏launcheson-chain FX on Base, six stablecoins.SilhouettelaunchesRFQ system for Hyperliquid perps.Echo Protocol𝕏winds down, withdrawals and repayments open.
QUICK BITES
HoneyB developerraises$5M at $30M valuation.Stablecoinsmoveover $400M per hour on average.Dunamuexplorecollaboration on stablecoin payments.Swiss regulator FINMAapprovescountry’s first spot bitcoin ETF.Ethereum stakinghits recordas yields fall and Solana activity grows.Crypto firms, Wall StreetpushSEC to revise Regulation Crypto Assets.Blockchain.comrolls outcrypto options as it pursues US derivatives licenses.JPMorganissuesfirst long-term bitcoin return forecast, projecting 10% annually.
NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME
Nick Research’s𝕏readon Robinhood Chain vs Canton.Stacy’s𝕏readon 82 Protocols Shutting Down This Year.
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