”― Yogi Berra Both sides right now OK- seriously: How is it possible that the floor around urinals is always sticky? I mean, this isnt the elementary school. Do people actually miss?
“If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll end up someplace else.”― Yogi Berra
OK- seriously:
How is it possible that the floor around urinals is always sticky? I mean, this isnt the elementary school. Do people actually miss?
on a related note, if you really lack the hygiene gene and don’t want to wash your hands in the men’s room, be smart and ‘fake it’ when other people are there. You do not want to be known as ‘that guy’. When I was at Bear, there was a guy who would walk out of the stall, paper under his arm, and just walk right out. I wonder if he ever figured out why NO ONE would hake his hand, ever.
It appears that both sides think they’re winning, and dependent on the metrics and perspective, that could be true. Each side seems to believe it can ‘out-wait’ the other, leading to stubborn negotiating positions and a recalcitrance to take the first steps toward compromise.
During the presidential campaign, it was widely circulated that the Iranians were attempting to assassinate then-candidate Trump. Does this third attempt, in the middle of a hot war, influence the decision-making and increase the odds of kinetic options being chosen?
Tl;Dr:
The Iran conflict is escalating into a full-scale supply crisis that’s forcing systematic repricing across global markets . Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-complete halt with the dual US and Iranian blockades firmly in place, creating acute supply disruption fears . Brent crude topped $111 per barrel this morning as peace negotiations show little sign of progress, with President Trump’s national security team remaining skeptical of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the strait .
The supply shock is cascading beyond energy—Qatar’s LNG shutdown is disrupting downstream industrial and petrochemical supply chains, while Asian refiners contemplate 20-30% run rate cuts as dozens of crude tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf .
Cross-asset correlations are breaking down as the crisis morphs from isolated geopolitical premium into systematic repricing of global growth and inflation outlooks. Risk-off sentiment is deepening with Brent crude breaching $111 and showing no signs of reversal . The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% as safe-haven demand intensified .
European natural gas surged, trading near €45 per megawatt-hour amid persistent uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war .
Precious metals are collapsing despite geopolitical tensions—spot silver plunged over 11% in recent sessions to around $73, indicating severe deleveraging is overwhelming any safe-haven bid .
Bitcoin fell to $76,637, down 1.3% over 24 hours, contradicting the “digital gold” thesis as crypto behaves as a risk-off liquidation candidate .
Markets starting to factor in longer and deeper impact?
The December Brent crude contract closed at a record yesterday and has risen further today.
The June Brent crude contract is less than one dollar from its record intra-day high printed on March 19.
Floating storage in the Middle East has hit a record +57mln bbls (data stretches back until 2016), highlighting the logistical challenges in transporting energy.
The WTI June contract today breached $100 for the first time since April 7.
Bloomberg NEF analysis shows oil prices could diverge sharply depending on how long the strait remains closed—a reopening in early May caps Brent near $100, while a delay to early July could push prices toward $160 .
Supply disruptions are hitting both inventories and demand. While Middle East oil exports are down 14.2 million barrels per day amid the Strait of Hormuz closure, observable inventories have drawn by about 4.8 million barrels per day, according to Morgan Stanley, with the largest component coming from oil-on-water at about 3.5 million barrels per day . JPMorgan notes the sharp fall in global oil demand is being driven more by supply shortages than by high prices, indicating “forced demand loss” rather than traditional demand destruction .
BBG citing Kepler Data: Iran has just 12 to 22 days of unused crude storage capacity remaining, raising the prospect of forced production cuts of a further 1.5m bpd by mid-May
Bond markets are repricing inflation risks globally. German two-year yields rose five basis points as traders increased ECB rate-hike bets, with money markets now implying 69 basis points of hikes by year-end . UK gilt yields hit session highs alongside Treasury yields as surging oil prices and inflation concerns weighed on fixed income . Franklin Templeton’s CIO warned that longer-term yields look vulnerable globally, with deglobalization pushing structural inflation higher and the Iran war combining both a short-term inflation shock and an incentive to “rethink globalization”
AXIOS: The Iran conflict has entered a Cold War-like phase of financial sanctions, gunboat interdictions and talks about having talks.Why it matters: The tense stalemate has no immediate end in sight. So higher energy prices appear certain for months — and a hot war could break out at any moment. The big picture: Several U.S. officials told Axios they’re concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal.
AxiosThe lows in Brent and WTI in April 17 were 86.09 and 78.97, respectively. Today these two benchmarks are 111.29 and 99.65. The spread increased from $7bbl to $11bbl, reflecting scarcity in Europe in relation to the US. President Trump seems unphased by market behavior because, despite it all, US equities are near all-time highs. Tech stocks in the S&P are up almost 20% so far in April, poised for the best monthly performance since 2002. Nvidia’s market cap has risen by $1.25 trillion in the past four weeks, reaching $5.26 trillion.
Rubio: Preventing Iran from having nuclear weapon remains core issue; direct communication with Iran is very rare and discreet; Iran is using Strait of Hormuz as economic nuclear weapon against the world, boasts about holding energy supplies hostage; Iran can’t be sole beneficiary of unlawful/unjustified toll system in Strait; level of sanctions on Iran is extraordinary, more can be bought to bear
The White House said U.S. officials were discussing Iran’s latest proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the eight-week war, including preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon .
Famous last words? What if the exports result in price spike domestically?? Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US is “absolutely not” considering an export ban on energy products . “We’re not going to stop those exports,” he says, adding “we’re going to grow those exports”.
Inflation expectations are spiking across developed markets. Eurozone one-year inflation expectations surged to 4% in March from 2.5% in February—the highest level since October 2023—forcing markets to price in 70 basis points of ECB hikes by year-end
The shooting at the WHCD Saturday has done little to bridge the gap between Democrats and Republicans in Congress on reopening the Department of Homeland Security . Congress still hasn’t passed funding for the Department of Homeland Security, and the emergency funds used to pay DHS staffers are set to run out by early next month .
Nvidia shares were down 1.6% at $213.07 in premarket trading Tuesday . Nvidia underperformed Magnificent Seven stocks in premarket trading, falling 1.7%, after the WSJ reported that OpenAI failed to meet internal targets for sales and new users .Other OpenAI partners also fell, with CoreWeave -4.3%, Oracle -5.2% and AMD -3.9% premarket . SoftBank tumbled almost 10% in Tokyo .
FOMC meeting starts today ahead of a looming leadership transition that remains fuzzy, and Wednesday’s news conference will be closely watched for any clarification. Committee is not expected to change the fed funds target from a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, which will likely be the last one chaired by Jerome Powell .
More than two million Londoners are set to have their jobs transformed, or eliminated, by artificial intelligence, a report from City Hall has said . Financial services professionals and software programmers are among the roles most at risk from developments in new technology . About 300,000 Londoners, according to the research, are already working in jobs highly exposed to AI .
International Macro
China’s central bank has instructed some commercial banks to expand loan issuance in April, Reuters reports, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the matter . The People’s Bank of China in a meeting asked banks to ensure the outstanding loan balances post positive month-on-month growth in April to underpin the economy.
Emerging markets are under pressure. The NSE Nifty 50 Index in India fell 0.4% to 23,995.70, Jakarta Composite Index dropped 0.5% for its seventh consecutive day of losses, falling to its lowest closing level since April 7 . Pakistan’s KSE-100 fell 0.6% in provisional trading .
Send this story to anyone — or drop the embed into a blog post, Substack, Notion page. Every play sends rev-share back to phildauber.
We’ve simplified responses to 👍 / 👎. Past comments are archived but no longer visible.