Greetings all. I am excited to share a special conversation we had this afternoon which did a deep dive on what has become one of the most important stories in the 2026 election - an undeniable and enormous surge of Hispanic/Latino voters voting all across the country right now. First we heard from Johnny Garcia who is running to flip one of those newly redrawn districts (TX-35) in Texas blue this November. Johnny gave us an update from his South Texas race, which was once considered one of the toughest House pick ups in Texas this year but has been moved to “Toss Up” by Cook and a newly released Republican poll has him up:
In our conversation Johnny - who is a great candidate - talked about the betrayal so many South Texas families feel, and how motivated people are to make things better. The early vote in his district has been huge as it has been all over Texas. With our support he can win this critical race and further embarrass Trump and the Rs for what is looking far more like a “dummymander” than a “gerrymander” in Texas.
You can help Johnny Garcia close strong by making a contribution to Hopium’s Growing Our House Majority Fund or by donating to his campaign directly, here. To learn more head to Johnny’s website where you can also sign up to volunteer.
Following Johnny I hosted an extended conversation with two dear friends, CNN Commentator Maria Cardona and journalist and former Univision anchor Leon Krauze. We cover a lot of ground in the spirited and timely conversation but our main focus was on what has become on one of the most consequential stories in American politics today - the huge surge of Latinos voters we are seeing in TX-35, throughout Texas, and all across the nation.
Today’s event was one of the most important discussions we’ve had all year at Hopium and I hope you will get to it as soon as you can.
What follows are the slides I shared today in the presentation that help capture what we are seeing and its significance for this election, for the Hispanic community, and for our relations with Latin America.
Here’s a summary of the national early vote so far. The Hispanic/Latino share of the vote is a stunning 45% higher than this point in 2022:
Here’s a breakdown of the Hispanic/Latino surge in selected states. As you can see this elevated performance is everywhere. In four states the raw vote this year is equal to or greater than the raw vote at this time in 2024, a Presidential year. Jawdropping stuff:
We also discussed recent polling showing how much Hispanics had moved from Trump and come back to the Democrats. These next three charts are from the venerable Pew Hispanic’s poll released last week. Trump’s approval has cratered with Hispanic/Latino voters this cycle, and now stands at an astonishing 24%:
Trump got 46% of the national Hispanic vote in 2024. Only 24% of Hispanic/Latinos plan on voting for a Republican Congressional candidate this year:
Hispanic Democrats are showing far more intensity than 2022, Hispanic Republicans far less:
This next chart is the Hispanic/Latino vote over time. Recent polling suggests that we have a shot this cycle to restore our pre-Biden-Harris margins with Hispanic/Latino voters. So what this means is that not only are lots more Hispanic/Latinos voting than 2022 but they will be voting much more for us:
This chart shows why restoring our previous margins with these voters is so important. The gains we made with Hispanic/Latino and Millennial voters in the 2006-2008 period grew our coalition, gained us a majority, and helped give us the best sustained performance in the national popular vote since FDR’s Presidency. When we lost ground with young people and Hispanics in 2024 we lost our majority and lost the Presidency. It’s why restoring this margins is among the most significant strategic undertakings in our party right now, and one we should be encouraged appears to be manifesting in the early vote this year:
Enjoy this remarkable discussion. Let’s hype the incredible turnout we are seeing. For imagine if one of the big stories of this election turns out to be that after two years of Trump’s terror campaign and mass deportations Hispanic Americans rose up to vote this rancid racists from office. It would be a righteous thing, and one we must do everything we can to promote and make happen in these final seven critical days of this historic election.
Adelante - Simon
Bio - Johnny Garcia, Democratic Nominee in Texas’ 35th Congressional District
Born and Raised in San Antonio, Johnny Garcia is a proud graduate of Memorial High School. Raised by a strong mother in a working class household, Johnny knows firsthand the challenges that everyday Texans face. From a young age, he understood that if he wanted a better life, he’d have to earn it through hard work, discipline, and service. Johnny worked construction while attending St. Philip’s community college, determined to grind out a better future the only way he knew how — hard work and education. At the age of 21, he answered the call to serve and joined the Bexar County Sheriff’s Office. Johnny started his law enforcement career nearly twenty years ago working in the jail, where he led the Inmate Worker Program—a second-chance initiative designed to rehabilitate people in custody through job training and reintegration planning. From there, he was promoted to patrol, and within just six months was selected to join the elite SWAT Crisis Negotiation Team. As a hostage negotiator, he learned how to handle high-pressure, life-or-death situations with calm, clarity, and compassion—skills that define real leadership.
As a Sheriff’s Deputy, Johnny has faced violent criminals, helped get drugs off our streets, and helped victims of domestic violence. An old school Democrat, Johnny is fighting to lower costs and to make it easier for Texans to get ahead. He’s running for people like his mom, his fellow deputies on patrol, and their children. He believes hard work should be rewarded, healthcare should be affordable, and safety should be everyone’s priority. And despite what Republicans promised, they’ve lied every step of the way. Johnny is stepping up to fight for the working class of Texas, because when working families are put first, Texas prospers. He’s running to make sure the people of District 35 see results… not in talking points, but in their wallets, their schools, and their neighborhoods. He believes true public safety means more than tough talk, it means ensuring kids feel safe in school, families can access healthcare, and communities can thrive with affordable housing and economic opportunity. And it means doing the hard work in Washington to renew the American promise for everyone, no matter their background, zip code, or bank account.
Bio - Maria Cardona, Principal, Dewey Square Group, Political Strategist and Commentator
A seasoned public policy advocate and political strategist, Maria Cardona has more than two decades of experience in the government, politics, public relations and community affairs arenas. Recognized among the most influential Latinos in the country, Maria is a Principal at the Dewey Square Group, leading the Multicultural and Public Affairs practices. Maria joined DSG in 2005 and founded DSG’s Latino Strategies practice, “Latinovations,” leveraging her reach in the Latino community by advocating on Latino issues, guiding clients on “best practices” for coalition building and support for their positions, products, and brands within the Hispanic community, and spearheading multicultural campaigns. Maria is also known for her work as a political commentator, and is currently a CNN and CNN en Español political contributor, and who appeared frequently on MSNBC, FOX, Univision and Telemundo prior to signing on exclusively with CNN. She is regarded as one of the nation’s top 100 most influential Latinos. Maria is a native of Colombia and lives in Washington, D.C. with her husband and two children.
Bio - León Krauze, Mexican-American Journalist
A recognized award-winning Mexican journalist, writer and host, León first started his career in sports journalism to end up becoming an acknowledged analyst, specialized in American society and politics. A versatile author, Krauze has published books on American sports and politics, plus three volumes on youth literature, including the novel El vuelo de Eluán and the bestsellers Historias perdidas. Along his twenty years of journalistic career, Krauze has interviewed dozens of leading figures from the worlds of culture, sports, and politics. His works have been published at The New Republic, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Newsweek, The Daily Beast, Los Angeles Times, El País, and Letras Libres, among many other publications.
