Morning all. Fourteen days to go. Yesterday Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas started early in-person voting. Today Hawaii, Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, and Wisconsin join them. Millions and millions will be voting now as hurdle deeper into the general election. Let’s now spend a little time looking at where we are with two weeks of voting left.
If anything - despite the billions in ads, his intense campaigning, the escalating voter bribes, his corrupt control over legacy and social media - Trump just keeps dropping as we get closer to the election. It is a bit stunning. On Sunday we reviewed the NBC and ABC/WaPo polls which had him at 34% and 33%, the worst showing for Trump in these polls this cycle. Today we see decline in two more polls. The first is Reuters/Ipsos, and just look the trend lines in this data:
The second is the daily Civiqs track where Trump also hit a new low today:
Reuters/Ipsos also found the generic blowing open for us:
This graph looks a lot like this Gallup Party ID graph we’ve been gawking at this past week:
We got a very encouraging poll of Ohio from Marist, a highly regarded independent pollster:
A respected Alaska poll has our gubernatorial candidate up 10 points, 55%-45%, when ranked choice voting is played all the way through (no data on the Senate race, assume we will get that tomorrow):
We are starting to get enough early in-person voting to start diving into the early vote in some states. For our early vote analysis our baseline will always be 2022, we use TargetEarly “modeled party” data, and we should assume with independents breaking 2:1 Dem right now that in each state we pick up between 1 and 3 points net in share from the unaffiliated vote. Let’s look at two high performing states now.
Georgia. Aggregate vote higher than 2022, Dem share up 6 points over 2022:
North Carolina. Aggregate vote way up over 2022, Dems running 19 points over 2022. Anderson Clayton is bringing it!
Another encouraging bit of data is the strong performance of Hispanic voters across the country who we know are trending very Democratic this time. Traditionally a late voting electorate the Hispanic share of the 2026 vote is 22% higher today than at this point in 2022:
I know there are encouraging signs from the first day of voting in Texas but I want to let a little more vote come in before diving in there. I am struggling to figure out how to convey all this to you each day for there is so much data, and more is coming in every day!
With 14 days to go here’s the bottom line my friends - if anything the election is moving further away from Trump and the Rs right now, despite their enormous cash advantage, Trump’s ferocious campaigning, their escalating bribes of the electorate, and their control over legacy and social media. It’s stunning. And righteous, for we are on the cusp of having the election we all wanted to have, and the Trump and the Rs certainly deserve.
Which is why we just need to put our heads down now, my friends, drive the early vote, support our candidates and state parties, and go win this thing, together!
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Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,532,100 raised, $2,000,000 new* stretch* goal | Watch interviews with these Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our seven candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Adam Hamilton (KS), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
This is the team that’s going to flip the Senate people. Note that on 10/9 we expanded this fund to include Adam Hamilton - yes much is possible for us this year!
**Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,641,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’ people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning Alaska - Donate | $27,600 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $77,600 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $107,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $259,100 raised, $300,000 new stretch goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Winning Texas (New) - Donate | $2,300 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Texas campaign splits a contribution evenly among Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico, and the Texas Democratic Party and its impressive chair, Kendall Scudder.
**Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $650,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $60,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $82,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $44,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $708,400 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
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Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country this November, together! - Simon
