“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money,” Senator Everett Dirksen, March 8, 1962
Friday Fun Fact:
The 2009, 2010, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024 Super Bowl champions all had a back up QB who had once been the starting QB for the Jaguars.
I am completely a Patriots hater, but Belichick didn't get into the HOF on the first ballot?
Remember when this mattered?
Things that shouldnt be met with a shrug, but sadly are these days:
Amidst rumors of a literal coup, President Xi removed his vice-chairman who was charged with leaking nuclear secrets to the U.S.
Ghislaine Maxwell has claimed that 29 associates and friends of Jeffrey Epstein were shielded by the US government through “secret settlements”. In a court filing petitioning for her release from prison, Epstein’s ex-girlfriend alleged four named “co-conspirators” and 25 other men avoided being charged because of agreements with the department of justice (DoJ). She did not name the individuals and claims such information was kept from her, and that her own legal defence suffered as a result when she went on trial. (Source: telegraph.co.uk)
President Donald Trump sued the US Treasury and Internal Revenue Service for at least $10B over an unauthorized disclosure of his tax returns to the press during his first term in Office
*US FACES FIRST POPULATION DROP IN HISTORY, ESTIMATES SHOW. Demographics is destiny, and declining/aging populations foretell a weakening country. Unintended consequence of harsh immigration policies.
Deja Vu all over again?
**Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed Chair.**Considered the most hawkish of the ‘finalists’, he has been making more dovish noises lately. To wit:Warsh dissenting statement on yesterday
‘With total inflation excluding tariff effects close to our target at just slightly above 2 percent and a weak labor market, the policy rate should be closer to neutral, which the median FOMC participant estimates is 3 percent, and not where we are—50 to 75 basis points above 3 percent. I favored reducing the policy rate to strengthen the labor market and guard against a deterioration that would be harder to address once it has begun.’
Warsh has worked as a partner at Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office and is considered part of a “global-macro lineage” that emphasizes market-attuned, less interventionist monetary policy. Reminder. Bessent worked at Soros Fund ( famously involved in ‘breaking the pound’)- along with Stan Druckenmiller.
Warsh is married to Ron Lauder’s daughter. Ron Lauder, the guy who famously first suggested to Trump we take over Greenland in 2017-2018.
Sadly, we now need to give these considerations greater weight than ever.
**Gold/Silver.**The amount of money- and the surge of retail buying- is prime retracement fodder. Whilst the dollar debasement issue and, silver, the industrial demand variable, will continue to support them, my guess is the next few months will be choppyFrom Hedgeye, courtesy of my old friend Mark Neuberger; ‘How much higher can gold go? We all know the math: the non-deflationary price of gold equals global M1 money supply multiplied by the historical 40% backing ratio, divided by total central-bank gold reserves. On today’s figures, that implies a price closer to $20,000 than today’s ~$5,000. Want to get to $35,000? Use M2 in place of M1.’
Dollar holding key support. For now.
Bitcoin, we have a problem. Breaking down ( looks like 76k), and divergence from FANG/AI make it unclear if it is anything but a speculative/risk-on asset
“Morgan Stanley Quants: A 2% Drop Will Trigger $45BN In Forced Selling”
(ZeroHedge)
