This picture captures my suspicion. Iykyk.
So…. It’s Saturday, and I’ve done the grocery shopping and caught up on ‘my shows’. I have chosen not to fight the crowds at Melania this weekend, so it feels like a good day to go down rabbit holes.
Let’s start with Kevin Warsh.
Right out of ‘central casting’ according to the President. Viewed by the Street as hawkish, although that appears to be more institutional memory from his position circa 2011, an examination of his recent comments reads more dovishly. Notably, he released a statement yesterday stating that he thought rates were 50-75 bps too high. Regardless, markets reacted as if the punchbowl had been snatched away, with commodities and uber-growth stocks sold off hard and the dollar rallying.
But here is where it gets, um, interesting. Let’s take a peek at Mr. Warsh:
He is married to Ron Lauder’s daughter. Ron Lauder is famously Donald Trump’s best friend from Wharton. Lauder is also recognized as the person who, in 2017, suggested to Trump that the US should ‘get’ Greenland for its minerals. Also of note, Lauder is an investor in a lithium mining company in which the U.S. Government owns an interest and which is currently involved in a Ukranian venture. Warsh has a home in Palm Beach, not far from Mar-a-Lago.
Warsh worked at Duquesne Capital 1995-2002. Duquesne was founded by Stan Druckenmiller, who was CIO of Soros when Bessent was there. ‘Druck’ is known for making big, aggressive bets when he sees the opportunity; famously, breaking the British Pound when Bessent was the point man in the UK for Soros. Druckenmiller has been bearish on the dollar and interested in stablecoins, which have and will continue to fuel conspiracy theoriststo wonder if Druck is ‘pulling the strings’ and dollar weakness is inevitable.
3 million documents were released yesterday from the Epstein Files. Did every rich guy in the world hang out with this pedophile?? Future anthropologists will have a field day with this one
Bear with me on this one.
Trump has continued to maintain he won the 2020 election, and is recent weeks has ratcheted up the ‘rigged election’ rhetoric. One of the re-posts revives the Sidney Powell thesis that the Dominion voting machines were hacked in (by?) Venezuela and manipulated by something or someone in Italy. Hurts my brain to even repeat it, but here we are.
Now we go down that burrow. After all the noise and bluster, all we seem to have actually done in Venezuela is
~~arrest~~and kidnap Maduro. Since then we have not heard from the Venezuelan President.This past week, the FBI seized the Fulton County voting results from 2020, votes that were cast on Dominion machines. Oddly, DNI Tulsi Gabbert, whose purview is
intelligence/counterintelligence, was there for the seizure. Also, strangely, the jurisdiction for this is in Missouri.foreignWhy, you ask, was Gabbert there? Why the seizure now? Why has the rhetoric suddenly gone to 11 on a scale of 1-10? Howzabout- and I do need to h/t JVL on The Bulwark for planting this seed in my head-the plan is to cut a deal with Maduro, wherein he ‘admits’ to Venezuelan interference with the voting machines in return for a Ghislane Maxwell style ‘Club Fed’ deal?
It has become clear that, barring a major reversal, the Democrats are highly likely to regain control of the House. Investigations and pushback on Executive Branch activity are most certainly not on the Trump Administration's wish list. A good ol’-fashioned election interference ‘reveal’, “necessitating “ more Federal oversight of voting, would certainly be a way for them to “help” their odds.
Sprinkle in a populist pushback on ICE/DHS oversight, which leads to a trigger event of real civil unrest or bloodshed, and voila, Insurrection Act. Another tool to control the elections.
Stories like this are starting to have a cumulative effect. There will be a tipping point. “ICE claim that a man shattered his skull running into wall triggers tension at a Minnesota hospital”
(Bbrg)
Yeah, I know. It’s like squinting at a painting and seeing Abraham Lincoln. Far-fetched. Ridiculous. But there IS that one painting where you actually can see him..
If nothing else, these days, extreme tail-risk events must be considered. Just sayin’.
“America Needs Restraint—and Facts”
(Peggy Noonan, WSJ)This is a lot of naval power to send ‘just for show’. I think too much online commentary about how Trump is going ‘TACO’ with Iran for him to totally back away now, and the demands on Iran- to relinquish all nuclear weapons and ballistic missile efforts- are untenable for Tehran.
Now What???
Remember, Michael Saylor’s MSTR has a heavily ( like HEAVILY) margined Bitcoin position with an average cost around $76,000. Break through there and you see the mother of all margin calls. The WHOLE street knows this, so there will be enormous pressure to force the issue.
Hedge Funds Slash Bullish Silver Wagers to 23-Month Low https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T9P38FT9NJLS
Off to walk Cody in the tundra. I promise more financial thoughts tomorrow!
