“He that has many friends, has no friends.” Aesop
STOP THE PRESSES— a new cookie from the Girl Scouts has been revealed. THIS. CHANGES. EVERYTHING.I know these days it is sometimes hard to find things to look forward to, so I give you this: the DOJ says 99% of Epstein Files have still not been released. Stock up on popcorn!
Eurasia Group’s 2026 report highlights U.S. political upheaval as the top risk, followed by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, European instability, U.S.-China rivalry, and AI’s geopolitical impacts. Israeli strikes on Iran in June 2025 escalated to U.S. involvement, bombing nuclear sites. In Africa, jihadist blockades in Mali and Somali-Israeli tensions persist. These reflect a “G-Zero” world of unconstrained power, with fewer diplomatic guardrails.
Interesting read from Hagai M. Segal on LinkdIn https://bit.ly/4brTbm2
“If you think the US capture of the Venezuelan President is all about oil, you may be right… but not necessarily in the way you think!
Today’s dramatic news - the latest in a wider military campaign in recent months - has, unsurprisingly, brought knee-jerk assumptions from some that this is a crude (!) attempt to gain unfettered access to Venezuela’s oil, the world’s largest reserves. But the reality is more nuanced, with much wider energy geopolitics at play.
Today’s events are not merely actions against Venezuela, but against Iran and the wider relationship between the two oil-rich strategic + ideological US adversaries.
In past months the Trump administration has been directly targeting the Venezuela-Iran oil connnection, especially Venezuela’s so-called ‘ghost fleet’, key to the illicit, sanctions-busting relationship between Venezuela + Iran.
This relationship has been vital for revenue-generation of both states, a key aspect of not just bolstering both regimes - as they increasingly have felt pressure from the sanctions of the US/the West- but also the ability of Iran to divert funds to its proxy network.
Iran exports refined oil to Venezuela due to Venezuela’s lack of infrastructure, with Iran supporting Venezuela attempts to build refineries/infrastructure to address this longterm. In return Venezuela supplies Iran with petroleum products as well as agricultural products (mainly coffee and cocoa), with significant payments for Iranian services being made in gold.
Iran then diverts some of these assets to Hamas and Hizbollah: Venezuelan gold, the US and Israel claim, has over the years been directly converted by Iran into arsenals of weaponry for them.
So profound is the relationship that Caracas reportedly offered asylum to Iran‘s leaders in the event of a coup, with Chilean paper La Tercera reporting last year that Iranian leaders have already acquired real estate in Venezuela.
Disrupting this relationship is at the core of Trump’s world view: while his foreign policy is often inconsistent + contradictory - e.g. criticising past US administrations for pursuing regime change yet Trump just executed a similar policy in Venezuela ! - opposition to socialist regimes in Latin America, and to Iran + its network of anti-Israel proxies, is one rare area of consistency.
Removing Maduro is thus killing two birds with one stone - simultaneously targeting the Venezuelan + Iranian regimes, and attempting to sever the oil-based strategic relationship between them.
Today’s actions are thus not just a nightmare for Maduro’s domestic and regional allies, but is also ratcheting-up economic and strategic pressure on the beleaguered Iranian regime. As they contend with the latest round of domestic protests, they find themselves further internationally isolated. And they now wonder whether Trump will target them next.”
“Russia Sends Submarine to Escort Tanker the U.S. Tried to Seize Off Venezuela”
(WSJ)“Trump Says Venezuela to Send Oil Worth Up to $2.8 Billion to US”
(Bbrg)Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the USRush to invest in Venezuela is ‘nuts’ (
BBG)“US Tells Venezuela to Cut Ties With China, Russia, ABC Says”
(Bbrg)Greenland:
Marco Rubio told Congress US plans to buy Greenland (
NYT).The White House said the president won’t rule out the use of military force to
acquire Greenland.Denmark seeks talks, while France is coordinating with allies on contingency plans. This revives Trump’s earlier interest, potentially straining NATO alliances.
Broader Arctic risks include Russian naval buildup and Chinese movements, which could lead to resource-driven confrontations. Experts note this fits a pattern of superpowers (U.S., Russia, China) pursuing expansionist agendas, with Russia near Ukraine and China near Taiwan.
“Iron Ore Hits Highest Since February on PBOC Outlook, Restocking”
(Yahoo)Syria and Israel agreed to a US‑brokered “joint fusion mechanism,” signaling deeper security coordination despite the absence of a formal peace, likely focused on de‑confliction and intelligence sharing.
My friend Rich Excell pointed out emerging markets look primed to outperform SPX. As he asked, If this were a stock, would you buy it?" Yes.
Action in the US 10year
Optimism for Fed rate cuts (two priced in for 2026) and fiscal stimulus loosened conditions—junk bond yields hit 2022 lows despite rising bankruptcies.
“Traders Pile Into Bullish Wagers on 10-Year Yields Below 4%”
(Yahoo)“Bond Trader Places Biggest Ever Fed Funds Bet in Futures”
(Bbrg)
“Fed’s Miran Says Over 100 Basis Points of Cuts Needed in 2026”
In other news…
PE management fees hit record low 1.6% last year (
CNBC)Private markets fundraising hit a record $1.4T last year on credit rush (
AW)Regulators globally are softening capital rules for banks (
RT)“Fund managers prepare for ‘reckoning’ in US tech sector”
(FT)“The AI debt boom does not augur well for investors”
(FT)“Spheres of Influence”
(Anne Applebaum)“Welcome to the Heat Death of Neoconservatism”
(Bulwark)
On the Macro front:
Consumer remains confused, sentiment remains low, but spending remains robust. Not sure how long that bifurcation can last.
Manufacturing sector showing positive momentum
Thoughts on individual sectors below the paywall
