Never look back unless you are planning to go that way. - Henry David Thoreau
Maybe we are all just living in a giant game of * Risk*?
A new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association passively tracked smartphone use of 640 adolescents who were about 15 years old. In general, teenagers spend about 8.5 hours a day on screen-based entertainment
(phys.org)First off, go Hoosiers!
Geopolitics :Lot of points of focus-
Venezuela-obviously and needs no explanation.
White House signaling indefinite oversight of the country’s oil industry. This includes seizing oil tankers, one under a Russian flag, prompting Moscow to deploy naval forces for protection and vow a “harsh response.”
Japan-China: China is putting pressure on Japan, with limits on rare Earth minerals and dual-use technology. Seen as an attempt to wedge US-Japanese relationship
Taiwan- Trump’s comments yesterday seen as very lukewarm support for Taiwan independence
Greenland/NATO
Ukraine-Kremlin again explicitly rejected the security guarantees for Ukraine that the United States and Europe are currently finalizing with Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. Zakharova stated that Russia will consider Western military deployments to Ukraine as a “foreign intervention” that will pose a “direct threat” to Russia’s security and as “legitimate combat targets” for the Russian military.
For now, markets are treating most geopol
Iran- perhaps the biggest potential flashpoint.
Iran faced a nationwide internet blackout, isolating the country amid unverified reports of unrest, protests torching government buildings, and a potential regime crackdown.
This coincided with an Israeli drone shot down over Iranian airspace, Tehran assuming a “war posture,” and U.S.-Israel evacuating embassies in occupied Palestine.
Trump ended nuclear negotiations with Iran, while Israel signaled imminent strikes on Hezbollah.
Massive rallies, led by middle class/small business community.
Trump has promised to ‘protect’ ordinary citizens if they are attacked by regime. Public calls for the return of the Shah ( the grandson of the one who abdicated in 1979).
Assume crackdowns will occur, and decent chance of some ‘external threat/enemy’ rhetoric to garner a ‘rally around the flag’ response. Israel a wild card here.
“Iran: Elite Paralysis and Systemic Decay”
(GPF)
The last 24 hours have highlighted a volatile global landscape, marked by escalating tensions in multiple regions, U.S. assertive foreign policy moves, and resource-driven strategic maneuvering. Key developments center on U.S. actions in Venezuela, rising instability in Iran and the Middle East, Arctic territorial ambitions, and broader nuclear and energy risks. These events underscore a shift toward U.S.-led unilateralism under the Trump administration, potentially straining alliances while boosting defense sectors economically. However, they also risk broader escalations, as seen in Russian and Iranian responses, amid a backdrop of weakened global institutions. For now, markets are treating most geopolitical developments (Venezuela, Greenland, US‑EU tension) as persistent background risk rather than immediate shock events; realized volatility is contained, and the equity risk premium is being compressed by AI/mega‑cap enthusiasm and gold as the chosen hedge instead of broad de‑risking.
Oh dear!
Asked in a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times if there were any limits on his global powers, Mr. Trump said: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.” “I don’t need international law,” he added. “I’m not looking to hurt people.” When pressed further about whether his administration needed to abide by international law, Mr. Trump said, “I do.” But he made clear he would be the arbiter when such constraints applied to the United States. “It depends what your definition of international law is,” he said.
The official White House website
now:Falsely claims that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen.”
Falsely claims Capitol police caused the riot.
Falsely claims Vice President Mike Pence had the power to “return disputed electoral slates to state legislatures for review and decertification” but chose not to “in an act of cowardice and sabotage.”
Falsely claims that Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House speaker at the time of the attack, was to blame for “security lapses” at the Capitol.
“US oil groups warn they will need guarantees to invest in Venezuela”
(FT)“The Greenland Mispricing: What Trillion-Dollar Allocators Are Getting Wrong”(Perera)“How Donald Trump could take control of Greenland”
(FT)“Greenland Central to US Arctic Strategies”
(Bbrg)"Trump Says U.S. Oversight of Venezuela Could Last for Years”
(Bbrg)“Trump’s Options If Supreme Court Says His Tariffs Are Illegal”
(Bbrg)If the Supreme Court agrees that the tariffs are unlawful, they could be undone, but Trump has other options to impose tariffs, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and other statutes that give the executive branch authority to levy taxes and duties.
“Donald Trump’s Venezuela action raises threat for China’s oil supplies”
(FT)“ Karl Rove: Ahead in 2026: You Read It Here First”
(WSJ)“Everybody hates renters”
(The Argument)“How Private Equity Is Changing Housing”
(Atlantic)Mr. Trump is set to ask US lawmakers for $1.5 trillion in defense spending, an increase of more than 50 per cent on the current year’s record budget of $901 billion. The dramatic increase would enable the US to build a “dream military” and would be paid for by tariffs, the president said on Wednesday in a post on social media. “I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars,” Trump wrote. “Because of Tariffs, and the tremendous Income that they bring,” he added, “we are able to easily hit the $1.5 Trillion Dollar number”. (Source: ft.com)
