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MSCI’s new rules never mention crypto, yet by judging companies on what they operate rather than what they hold, they force a question treasury firms have dodged since 2020: is a bitcoin-heavy balance sheet a business strategy or a fund wearing a corporate wrapper?
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In Today’s Email:
**What Matters:MSCI Rules Threaten Crypto Treasuries 👀Product of the Week:NUVA Puts Mortgages Onchain 🔎Charts:**Strive Outpaces Its Own Forecasts, Circle Defends Its USDC Economics 📊
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WHAT MATTERS
**State of play: **MSCI has finalized a methodology that judges companies on operating assets rather than crypto exposure alone, a reframing that could push Strategy and other treasury firms out of major indexes.
The new rules take effect with the November index review, replacing the interim cap on firms holding at least 50% of total assets in digital assets.
Companies will be screened on operating assets plus five financial ratios, with buffers applied to thresholds and timing to limit index turnover.
Existing constituents are removed only after failing the screen in two consecutive annual filings, while non-constituents are blocked after failing in either period.
A May 2026 simulation flagged Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake, and Ethereum treasury firm SharpLink could also be affected.
Strategy called the proposal “discriminatory” and argued it would damage MSCI’s neutrality more than its own business, with the final affected list due Nov. 11.
Why it matters: Index inclusion drives passive flows, so exclusion could force billions in selling and weaken the equity premium that funds treasury firms’ bitcoin buying.
**Our take: **MSCI has a point, a company whose value is mostly a bitcoin stack behaves more like a fund than an operating business, and index rules exist to make that distinction.
For builders and investors: Watch the Nov. 11 list, and price treasury stocks on their underlying holdings rather than on passive inflows that may disappear.
PRODUCT OF THE WEEK
𝕏NUVA’s HOME vault lets anyone with 1 USDC hold a slice of US home loans, but calling it “permissionless” glosses over the real test of whether a fixed 7.00% target and a thin first-loss buffer can absorb credit stress that onchain users have never had to price.
The vault launched with roughly $10M in TVL against a $12M cap, signaling cautious early sizing rather than open-ended growth.
Depositors receive nvHOME tokens that accrue yield continuously, with withdrawals settling within 3 US business days rather than instantly.
A first-loss buffer targeting 5% of TVL sits ahead of token holders, with the policy rate maintained only until that buffer is exhausted.
The portfolio starts with HELOCs from Figure and partners, with RTLs and DSCR loans planned later and 5% held in YLDS for small redemptions.
Figure Investment Advisors, an SEC-registered adviser, manages the loans, while AML screening and IP-based geographic limits apply to primary flows.
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Lido𝕏launchesdirect ETH staking on L2s.WorldlaunchesWorld ID suite for banks.JPY DeFi𝕏launcheda yen stablecoin, JPYdf.Jupiter𝕏launchesYOLO, up to 1,000x leverage.EQX Labslaunchestokenized US stocks on Hyperliquid.Starknet𝕏launchesShadow Accounts for private DeFi access.
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CHARTS OF THE WEEK
**State of play: **TD Cowen lifted its Strive price target to $56 from $44 as the firm’s bitcoin buying outran analyst expectations, yet the stock’s 6.6% Friday drop shows the market still discounts accumulation funded by dilution.
Strive bought nearly 7,600 BTC in two weeks, well above TD Cowen’s 4,750 BTC forecast for the entire quarter.
Holdings now stand at 35,595 BTC, worth roughly $2.9B, edging Strive just past MARA into fourth place among public companies.
Warrant exercises sharply expanded diluted shares and weighed on BTC Yield, though analysts expect relief now that the $27 warrants are gone.
Strive enlarged its SATS preferred offering to 7M shares at $90 each, targeting $630M with an Oct. 20 close.
The company will reserve 18 months of dividend cash, and TD Cowen sees the raise funding more bitcoin without new common shares.
**Our Take: **Preferred shares don’t remove the cost of buying bitcoin, they turn dilution into a fixed dividend bill bitcoin can’t pay, and an 18-month reserve buys time, not a business model.
State of play: Circle’s disclosure that it keeps roughly 7 cents of profit per revenue dollar is meant to rebut rivals claiming incumbents hoard stablecoin yield, but it also exposes how thin the margins are for an issuer whose income rises and falls with interest rates.
Circle booked about $1.4B in H1 2026 revenue, paying $819M to distribution partners and transaction costs.
Another $473M went into infrastructure, compliance, and product, which COO Kash Razzaghi framed as core to USDC’s utility rather than overhead.
USDC handled over $36T in onchain volume and took about 77% of global stablecoin transaction volume in June, up from 60% a year earlier.
Standard Chartered estimates stablecoin monthly transfer value has averaged nearly $10T this year, underscoring the size of the market Circle is defending.
William Blair sees regulation, tokenized-asset growth, and diversification supporting the stock into 2027, with Q3 results due Nov. 4.
Our take: Circle’s 77% share is rented, not owned, most revenue flows to the partners who distribute USDC, so the moat lasts only as long as Circle can outbid rivals for distribution.
QUICK BITES
WorldlaunchesWorld ID suite for banks.The White House’s crypto chiefdeparts.Stablecoin supplystalls, but payments jump 45%.Crypto.com, NovigsueMissouri over sports event contracts.Deutsche BanktargetsAsia crypto custody expansion in 2027.CoreWeave, Broadcom, Verizonobjectingto tokenized trading of their shares.Cysicsuspendsbridge after attacker mints tokens and moves $727K to Ethereum.
NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME
Crypto Bond’s𝕏readon Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle.Joshrudolf’s𝕏readon ETH is Ethereum’s most important application.Hans’s𝕏readon The $280M Cost of Onboarding Retail to Hyperliquid.
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