Fourteen months ago, when I first started ranking the 10 Democrats most likely to be the 2028 presidential nominee, I put New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the pole position.
Of AOC, I wrote:
Even before Zohran Mamdani’s win in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor last month, I had been contemplating putting AOC at the top of the heap of 2028 Democrats. Why? Because, as of today, there is no other Democrat in elected office who could get 10,000 people to show up anywhere in the country with 48 hours or less notice. (The only other one may be Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, but at age 83, I don’t think Bernie is running for president again.) While I know that being able to attract a crowd isn’t everything in politics, the excitement and passion that AOC generates does matter — especially in a Democratic primary!
I took a LOT of shit for putting AOC at #1! Like, a LOT.
And yet, more than a year later, I am returning AOC to the top of my rankings — pushing California Gov. Gavin Newsom out of the top spot for the first time this year(!).
Why? Because AOC’s decision to a) freeze her eggs b) go public with that journey and c) go on a Sunday talk show less than 24 hours later to open the door to a presidential run all makes me think that she is leaning toward a bid for the 2028 nomination.
If she runs, AOC has the liberal/DSA lane to herself. (I find it hard to believe California Rep. Ro Khanna gets into the race if the New York Congresswoman is running.) And, as the 2026 primary season has shown, that lane is a) big and b) filled with very, very energized Democratic base voters.
AOC will also be one of if not the best fundraiser in the race. Since the start of 2025, she has raked in more than $32 million for a non-competitive House race. That, I think, is only the tip of the iceberg of what she could raise in a presidential race.
The biggest question for her? Whether her (calculated) attempt to laugh off “Woke 1” as “crazy” will sell to a broader Democratic primary electorate desperate to get back into the White House.
More on that below…
Speaking of below, scroll down for my latest and greatest rankings of the 10 Democrats with the best chance to be the presidential nominee in 2028.
These rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.
This post — and all future 2026 and 2028 rankings posts — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me as someone calling balls and strikes without fear or favor.
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