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I call balls and strikes ⚾ — because politics needs referees, not cheerleaders.
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As President Donald Trump’s political standing continues to deteriorate — even among Republicans — it gets (slightly) more complicated to handicap the Republican race to replace him.
To be clear: I still think that Trump — no matter what happens in five weeks — will be the sun around which the 2028 GOP primary fight will orbit. And I still think the likely nominee is someone who aligns themselves unapologetically with the president — even if he is diminished considerably after this midterm election.
But, with Trump’s disapproval now over 60% and voters even more negative about how he has handled the economy, I can now see the possibility — albeit a small one — that there is a real desire for a 2028 nominee who promises to move beyond the president rather than just run in his wake.
Again, that is not the likeliest outcome! But with Trump’s numbers continuing to get worse and the bottom appearing to drop out on Republicans with 35 days to go in tje election, it’s now at least on the table.
That said, Vice President JD Vance remains the clear frontrunner to be the nominee today — as reflected in the odds:
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As always, these rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.
At this point, there is a TON of volatility in my ratings — especially on the Republican side as what Trump wants (and says) can change everything in the blink of an eye.
I do these rankings — as well as my rankings of the 2028 Democratic field — monthly. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me as someone calling balls and strikes without fear or favor. Missed my latest 2028 Democratic rankings ? They’re here.
