It is the warmest September-October period on record at Greater Lafayette, just beating out 1931 by 0.1 degree!
It is also a tie with 1963 & 1920 for the 5th warmest October on record.
After morning lows of 48-56, highs today reached 64-73.
Dry air has cut our dew points from 50s & 60s to 40s & 50s since yesterday, drying up a lot of the rainfall.
Nonetheless, since yesterday afternoon, we have seen a few spotty showers, but coverage has only been 30% & 70% of the echoes on radar since yesterday have been virga (despite even layer of elevated buoyancy or unstable air, as witnessed by the altocumulus catellanus clouds around in the sky with the altostratus overcast).
Despite moisture coming in from the southwest with spotty showers, the dew points actually dropped through the day in our eastern & southeastern counties to as low as 40 as that east to southeast dry air continues to bleed in.
A few scattered showers are expected now through Monday to early Tuesday morning at times.
We have a some out there right now moving northeastward.
Drier air still keeping the higher dew points & deepest moisture at bay to the west will keep that rainfall spotty.
This is why I haven’t pushed any rainfall coverage above 30-40% until Tuesday night.
Higher dew points to +60 spread eastward by Tuesday afternoon, but it still should be pretty dry until more widespread rainfall & a few storms arrive Tuesday night.
By 8 p.m. Tuesday, rainfall should be along I-57:
Band of rain & a few storms passes then Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. We then get some clearing, followed by cumulus clouds bubbling up a couple lines of low-topped showers & t’showers pivoting through in the late afternoon to evening.
SLIGHT RISK (yellow) or 2 out of 5 on the scale for severe is up west of us Monday with potential of pocket of ENHANCED RISK painted with time.
SPC keeps MARGINAL RISK southwest of our area Tuesday night to Wednesday from southern Illinois to Louisiana. If more instability can make it in here, then we may have MARGINAL RISK for severe & SLIGHT RISK may be painted farther south in the Mississippi Valley. We will monitor.
Some showers are possible Friday to Friday night. Saturday looks dry & cool.
Latest data continues to shift more of the +1” & +2” totals west & southwest of our area with that persistent plume of drier air from being recycled from the southeast & east. We will monitor, but totals by Friday may run more like near 0.45” to 1”.
An Alberta Clipper should zip through at some point near Sunday (pushed 20% rainfall coverage from Saturday to Sunday to account for the change) with a couple showers followed by the freeze.
We then quickly warm back again above normal.
Big warmth then takes over with above to well-above normal temperatures & the return of 70 to the 70s!
Below normal rainfall also dominates.
We have a brief hard freeze near Thanksgiving (lows 18-25) behind a strong cold front with potential narrow squall line of storms & a burst of cold (lows 12-17) with lake effect snows around the area around December 7, otherwise, we are dominated by above to well-above normal temperatures.
Note the stint into Phase 1 of the MJO, which will briefly counteract the big Super Nino warmth near December 7.
