Democrats Rise in Race for Congress as Trump and Vance Campaign in Trump Country
Several polls are now showing Democrats with double digit leads on the Congressional generic ballot. A new Economist/YouGov poll found Democrats with a +15 point advantage on the generic ballot among Likely Voters, 53%-38%. The new Quinnipiac University Poll found that Democrats have a +12 point advantage over Republicans among Registered Voters, 51%-39%, and among Independent voters that lead jumps to +24 points. A new Argument Magazine/Verasight poll found Democrats with a +10 point lead over Republicans for control of Congress, 55%-45%. Nate Silver’s model now shows Democrats with an approximate generic ballot lead of +9. In the 2018 election, when Democrats gained 41 seats in the midterm elections, Democrats led the popular vote by 8.4 percent.
These polls come as Donald Trump and JD Vance hit the campaign trail for Republicans. Notably, Trump and Vance are heading to red states and districts to shore up races that should be easy wins for Republicans in a normal year. On Wednesday, Vance held a rally for Eric Flores, who is running in an unexpectedly tight race in Southern Texas. Then on Thursday, he traveled to Florida to campaign with Byron Donalds, who is running in a close race for Governor. On Thursday, Trump held rallies in Denton, Texas, north of Dallas, and in Durant, Oklahoma. Trump has promised that these stops are just the beginning of a month-long schedule in support of Republican candidates. His next stops: Vandalia, Ohio and Grand Island, Nebraska—both normally safe red states.