Make sure to have your questions regarding this forecast in the LIVE Q & A TONIGHT AT 7 P.M. EASTERN on Facebook & YouTube.
When you make a long-range forecast, for example for Winter, you need to know who the main players are.
Some Winters & overall seasons have an array of players fighting for dominance for weather influence. Some players work in synchrony with others to enhance both or one or the other. Other players may dampen another player’s influence & sometimes it is a gelling of +5 players all together trying to exude their influence on the weather pattern.
Who are these players that govern seasonal weather?
They are teleconnections. It is something happening in one area influence what is happening in another. This may be 300 miles away or on the other side of the world. The combination of all of these teleconnections govern our weather. When we know each one of them & what they bring & how they interact & diminish or enhance each other, we can make long-range forecasts. We also have to first predict how each teleconnection will behave based on the core principles of what is driving it.
A large list of teleconnections that we are aware of have been developed & we have a good idea of what strong aspects of each bring. However, once you combine different ones together, that is when it gets tricky! You also have to combine all of these into an atmosphere that is rapidly increasing in greenhouse gases like CO2.
A team of all-star future NBA players is easier to forecast as winning an NCAA game then evenly-match teams that could be a toss-up of a winner.
Some of these impact us much more than others, while it is a combination of some of these that may influence our weather more than just one alone.
It is also important to note that how a certain teleconnection or group of teleconnections behaved 20 years ago may be different today. Some have shown changes in the past 10-20 years.
