My good friend Tom Bonier dropped by this afternoon for a live for in-depth discussion of what we are seeing in the early vote, late polling, and broader trends in what has become a very promising election for us.
Here’s some of the data we reference in our discussion……
Here’s my latest chart on the incredible intensity we are seeing among critical parts of our coalition - young voters and voters of color.
The enormous surge of Hispanic/Latinos who are showing up in the early vote all across the country has become a very big story:
While we talked about how incredible this data is we also talked about the remarkable new polling from the NYT. No one in recent decades has seen polling that looks like this for Democrats:
We also spend a lot of time talking about the unaffiliated/independent vote and how much more Democratic it will be this time. Recent polling suggests independents are favoring Dems right now by about 20 points, which means that all the early vote analysis we are seeing now is likely underestimating the performance of Democrats:
This is how a +20 Dem independent vote compares to recent elections:
We also discuss how not only are young people and voters of color highly turning out in huge numbers they are also going to be voting much more Democratic this time. The Harvard IOP poll released a few days ago had the generic ballot with 18-29 year olds at 63% Dem - 26% GOP, just a devastating result for the venal party of Trump:
Recent Pew polling puts the Black vote at 90% Dem - 9% GOP, what would be our best showing since the 2018 election. So again, lots more Black voters who are also voting more Dem this time:
Recent polling suggests that Democrats are likely to return to margins with Hispanic/Latino more in keeping with what we’ve seen in recent decades. The Pew Hispanic poll released a few days ago had the generic ballot at 51% Dem - 24% GOP, again a shockingly low number for a community that voted 46% for Trump in 2024:
While we go through lots of data in our presentation we also talk about the significance of Democrats competing in so many regions of the country where we have struggled - Alaska, Texas, the Midwest/Heartland, the Deep South - and why we may not only be restitching together a popular vote majority that we lost in 2024 but are building a far better and more durable electoral map for our party. It’s a very uplifting stuff!
Tom also reminds us that to turn these newly competitive states into durably competitive states Dems must launch an intense and well-funded national partisan voter registration campaign as soon as possible after tomorrows election. Here is a bit more from Tom on the need for Dems to lean in hard into partisan voter registration next year.
For more on the youth vote in the 2026 election watch my new discussion with Harvard’s John Della Volpe:
For more on the remarkable surge we are seeing of Hispanic/Latino voters watch our new, lively discussion with Maria Cardona, Leon Krauze, and Johnny Garcia (TX-35):
Finally, we wished everyone good luck tomorrow! Election Day is hours away, and we need to make it a blowout fellow patriots! The data we’ve seen in recent days is very promising - let’s bring it home brothers and sisters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Simon
Tom Bonier is a veteran Democratic political strategist and TargetSmart’s Chief Executive Officer. Prior to TargetSmart, Tom co-founded Clarity Campaign Labs in 2012 and helped build it into one of the nation’s leading Democratic analytics and research firms. He has spent more than 20 years working in Democratic and progressive politics. Prior to Clarity, Bonier served as Chief Operating Officer at the National Committee for an Effective Congress (NCEC). Throughout his career, Bonier has received numerous awards for his contributions to political campaigning, redistricting, and strategic planning. He has also appeared as a commentator for multiple publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Politico, as well as on-air on “News Hour” on PBS and “All Things Considered” on National Public Radio.
