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Happy weekend, Stablescope readers.
How was TOKEN2049 Singapore? We hope the week brought valuable conversations, fresh perspectives and new partnerships. As the industry moves from conference discussions back to execution, this week’s headlines highlight two forces shaping stablecoin adoption: broader distribution and tighter regulatory control.
This week’s headlines capture the two forces shaping stablecoin adoption: broader distribution and tighter control over market access.
Recap on the two headliners this week:
SS #141: Stripe Takes Stablecoin Cards Global
SS #142: ESMA Sets USDT Exit Deadline
Stripe plans to expand its stablecoin card programs to more than 100 countries by year-end, bringing digital-dollar balances into familiar payment experiences. The target builds on an expansion announced by Visa and Bridge in March; it remains a rollout ambition rather than confirmation that every market is live. CoinDesk
Meanwhile, ESMA’s October 8 opinion calls for EU-authorised crypto platforms to cease services involving non-MiCA-compliant stablecoins and remediate existing exposures within three months—by January 8, 2027 at the latest. Temporary services must be limited to supervised wind-down activities. The opinion addresses regulated intermediaries rather than establishing a blanket prohibition on private ownership. esma.europa.eu
Together, these developments suggest that stablecoins can become easier to spend globally while becoming more selective about where—and through whom—they can be used.
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At Onigiri, we see the next phase of stablecoin competition shifting toward the companies that make digital dollars usable within everyday financial workflows.
Stripe’s opportunity lies in connecting balances, wallets, conversion and card issuance through infrastructure businesses already understand. In Visa and Bridge’s original model, a customer spends from a stablecoin balance while the merchant receives local currency. Adoption therefore does not require every merchant to become a crypto operator. Visa
ESMA introduces a complementary constraint: technical integration cannot substitute for regulatory eligibility. Our view is that global providers will increasingly need different token selections, partners and controls across jurisdictions. A single interface may serve customers internationally, but the financial arrangements underneath it will remain local.
This creates opportunities for compliant issuers and infrastructure providers that manage conversion, liquidity, reconciliation and policy enforcement. It also strengthens the bargaining position of large distributors. Supporting multiple stablecoins does not necessarily mean giving each equal prominence; defaults, pricing and integration quality can influence which assets customers ultimately use.
For investors, the central question is who owns the customer workflow—and whether that position produces durable margins after compliance, liquidity and distribution costs.
Major Stablecoin Issuers
Authorised issuers with reliable redemption and strong distribution partnerships.
Noncompliant issuers face restricted EU access; issuers dependent on large platforms may lose pricing power.
Banks & Financial Institutions
Banks providing reserves, card sponsorship, FX, settlement and local payouts.
Institutions risk losing customer relationships if platforms become the primary financial interface.
Regulators
Clearer intermediary obligations can strengthen enforcement and accountability.
Activity may migrate beyond regulated venues, complicating supervision.
Corporates & Enterprises
Businesses can connect global balances to familiar expense and payment products.
Country restrictions, conversion costs and provider dependence may limit practical savings.
Retail Users & Crypto Natives
Stablecoin holders gain more convenient ways to spend balances.
EU users may face migration costs, earlier platform cutoffs and fewer supported assets.
Developers & Protocol Founders
Teams building compliant wallets, payment workflows and reconciliation tools.
Thin integration products face commoditisation; token-dependent products face regional access constraints.
Institutional Investors & VCs
Businesses with recurring payment demand, defensible distribution and proven economics.
Geographic coverage and transaction growth can obscure weak retention or low margins.
Infrastructure & Service Providers
Liquidity, custody, compliance, fraud prevention and accounting providers.
Bundled platforms may compress fees and reduce demand for standalone services.
DAOs & Governance Communities
Communities that diversify treasury assets and strengthen operational controls.
Reliance on one stablecoin can create access and liquidity vulnerabilities.
Stablecoin cards connect two systems with different operating characteristics. The customer holds a digital-dollar balance, while the card network provides familiar merchant acceptance. Conversion allows the merchant to receive local currency; separately, Visa and Bridge are expanding options for participating institutions to settle with Visa using stablecoins. Funding a card with stablecoins and settling a card transaction onchain are distinct capabilities.
That distinction matters commercially. Faster balance movement may improve funding and reconciliation, but it does not automatically remove card fees, FX spreads, fraud costs or refund obligations. The meaningful test is whether the complete payment workflow becomes cheaper, more reliable or easier to launch.
ESMA’s approach places responsibility across the intermediary’s service stack, extending beyond trading pairs to custody, transfers, advice and portfolio management. Existing exposures must be addressed as soon as possible within the outer deadline, with continued services narrowly restricted to facilitating an orderly exit.
Our expectation is that this will increase demand for infrastructure that selects eligible assets and routes transactions according to the customer’s jurisdiction. The strongest platforms will make those choices easy for users while preserving clear records, dependable redemption and alternative providers.
Stripe’s card expansion illustrates how stablecoins can support ordinary spending without changing the merchant’s payment experience. The underlying asset becomes useful because it connects to established acceptance and conversion infrastructure. Visa
For institutions, however, a dollar peg is only the starting point. They must also understand the issuer, the holder’s legal claim, redemption arrangements and permitted uses. Two tokens targeting the same value may offer materially different operational and legal protections.
Our view is that sustainable adoption will depend on making these distinctions manageable. A successful product should simplify the user experience while giving businesses sufficient visibility into the financial dependencies behind it.
**Rollout execution:**Does the 100-country target translate into accessible, actively used programs? Coverage should be assessed alongside eligibility, limits and local support.**Migration liquidity:**Moving balances and trading pairs may create wider spreads, conversion costs and temporary liquidity gaps.**Platform concentration:**Providers combining wallets, conversion and issuance can simplify operations while increasing switching costs and dependence on their defaults.**End-to-end economics:**Stablecoin funding does not establish lower total payment costs. Card fees, FX, compliance, fraud and refunds remain central to profitability.**Redemption and continuity:**Institutions need clear arrangements for issuer stress, interrupted conversion, bank outages and unavailable blockchain networks.**Regulatory displacement:**Restricted access may shift some demand toward self-custody or offshore services. The extent of that migration—and its effect on oversight and user protection—remains uncertain.
Onigiri Capital (onigiri.vc), a US$50 million blockchain-focused investment fund, launched by Saison Capital, the venture arm of Japan’s Credit Saison. Onigiri Capital is on a mission to chart the next chapter of finance and invest in seed and Series A blockchain startups in stablecoins, payments, RWAs, DeFi and financial infrastructure. The fund’s strategy emphasizes connecting startups to Asia’s growing digital asset markets.
If you’d like to discuss or contribute to the next Institutional Lens, contact us at hi@onigiri.vc
Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.
