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Stablecoins are entering a different phase of adoption.
For most of their history, the debate was about whether stablecoins could become useful enough to move beyond crypto trading. This week, the more interesting question is what happens after they do.
Two developments illustrate that transition from opposite ends of the financial system.
Recap on the two headliners this week:
SS #133 - Stablecoins Can Weaken Local Currencies
SS #134 - Visa Stablecoin Settlement Surges 15x
First, new Bank of Korea research suggests that demand for dollar stablecoins can transmit directly into traditional foreign-exchange markets. Once global intermediaries can freely connect local fiat currencies with dollar stablecoins, crypto demand no longer necessarily ends with a higher USDT or USDC premium. It can instead translate into the selling of local currencies and ultimately into exchange-rate pressure.
Second, Visa disclosed that its stablecoin settlement volume has surpassed a $20 billion annualised run rate, more than 15x higher year-on-year, while over 160 stablecoin-linked card programmes are already operating on its network. Payment volume through those programmes has grown nearly 200% year-on-year.
The question is no longer simply whether stablecoins will scale. It is who provides the liquidity, credit, regulation and monetary infrastructure underneath them when they do.
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The significance of this week’s headlines is not that stablecoins are replacing banks, card networks or currencies. In fact, the opposite is happening.
Stablecoins are increasingly becoming embedded inside the existing financial system, connecting blockchains to FX markets, payment networks, credit facilities, banks and corporate treasury infrastructure. That changes the investment thesis.
1. Stablecoin adoption is becoming an FX question
The Bank of Korea research provides an important framework for understanding how dollar stablecoins can influence currencies.
When investors buy USD stablecoins using local currencies through globally connected exchanges, market makers effectively sit between two markets. They can supply the stablecoin, receive local currency and subsequently rebalance by selling that local currency for dollars.
At sufficient scale, the process creates a transmission channel: Local stablecoin demand → intermediary inventory → FX rebalancing → local-currency selling pressure.
The study finds that once Binance introduced direct fiat-stablecoin pairs, stablecoin premiums declined as markets became better integrated—but demand shocks were also transmitted more effectively into exchange rates. Korea currently provides an interesting counterfactual because the absence of a direct Binance won-stablecoin pair means buying pressure has tended to appear in local stablecoin premiums rather than materially affecting the won exchange rate.
That distinction matters.
Stablecoin market efficiency and monetary-policy insulation can pull in opposite directions.
The better connected stablecoins become to global FX liquidity, the easier they are to use—but the easier it also becomes for demand for digital dollars to translate into demand for actual dollars.
2. Stablecoin payments are creating a new credit market
Meanwhile, Visa’s latest numbers demonstrate what happens further downstream.
Stablecoin settlement is no longer merely a blockchain experiment.
Visa says settlement volume has exceeded a $20 billion annualised run rate, compared with roughly $7 billion as recently as March-April 2026. More than 160 stablecoin-linked card programmes now operate across its network.
But rapid transaction growth produces another problem: working capital.
Card issuers must fund Visa settlement before they necessarily collect the corresponding funds from their customers. The larger their payment volume becomes, the larger this liquidity gap can become.
This is where the infrastructure stack becomes particularly interesting.
Credit Coop and Visa are connecting network settlement information with onchain credit facilities, allowing settlement receivables to support revolving financing. Visa reports that the model has financed more than $2.5 billion of cumulative settlement volume since 2023 across more than 3,000 onchain borrowing events, with zero defaults reported across participating facilities.
We think this is more important than it initially appears. Stablecoin infrastructure is moving from: issuance → wallets → payments → settlement → credit.
The emerging opportunity is increasingly in the layers connecting these activities together.
Major Stablecoin Issuers
Winner
Higher payment and settlement adoption expands stablecoins beyond trading and reinforces network effects. However, issuers of USD stablecoins may face growing political resistance in markets concerned about digital dollarisation. Distribution becomes larger, but increasingly regulated.
Banks & Financial Institutions
Mixed
Stablecoin growth threatens portions of deposits, payments and FX economics, but simultaneously creates new businesses in custody, reserve management, settlement credit, FX liquidity and tokenised deposits. Banks that integrate early can become critical intermediaries rather than casualties.
Regulators
More pressured
Regulators gain better evidence that stablecoins must be treated as part of financial-market infrastructure rather than solely crypto regulation. The challenge becomes balancing innovation with capital-flow management, monetary sovereignty and financial stability.
Corporates & Enterprises
Winner
Faster settlement, programmable treasury and cheaper cross-border payments become increasingly credible. Corporate adoption should accelerate as stablecoins become integrated with existing payment networks rather than requiring entirely new distribution channels.
Retail Users & Crypto Natives
Winner
Stablecoins become easier to spend and access through familiar card infrastructure. In emerging markets, however, large-scale movement into USD stablecoins may increase policy restrictions if governments perceive domestic currency substitution.
Developers & Protocol Founders
Winner
The opportunity moves beyond wallets and exchanges toward credit underwriting, settlement orchestration, treasury automation, FX routing, compliance and programmable payments. Infrastructure serving regulated institutions becomes increasingly valuable.
Institutional Investors & VCs
Winner
A new category of investable infrastructure is emerging around stablecoin settlement finance, receivables, payment orchestration and FX. The strongest opportunities may sit one layer below issuers themselves.
Infrastructure & Service Providers
Strong winner
Compliance, settlement, liquidity, custody, treasury, credit and interoperability become essential as stablecoin flows scale. Infrastructure businesses benefit regardless of which issuer ultimately wins.
DAOs & Governance Communities
Mixed
Larger stablecoin markets deepen onchain liquidity, but institutional adoption may increasingly favour permissioned, regulated and commercially governed infrastructure over purely decentralised alternatives.
Exchanges
Strategic inflection
Exchanges benefit from deeper fiat-stablecoin connectivity, but the BOK research shows that these trading pairs can become macro-financial transmission mechanisms. Expect greater scrutiny of liquidity providers, FX exposure and market structure. Traditional market infrastructure has an opportunity to intermediate institutional stablecoin flows.
This week’s two headlines look different, but they point to the same structural shift: stablecoins are becoming embedded across the financial system, linking sovereign currencies, payment networks and credit markets.
The first is the sovereign balance sheet. Dollar stablecoins make access to USD exposure significantly easier, especially in markets where traditional dollar access is constrained. The Bank of Korea research shows that once local currencies are directly connected to stablecoins through global exchanges, demand can transmit into FX markets through market-maker rebalancing. At scale, stablecoin adoption can therefore become a monetary-policy and currency-sovereignty issue, not just a crypto-market one.
The second is the payments balance sheet. Visa’s $20 billion annualised stablecoin settlement run rate shows that blockchain settlement is increasingly moving into mainstream payments infrastructure. Importantly, stablecoins do not need to replace Visa to succeed. Consumers can continue using cards, merchants can continue receiving fiat, while settlement underneath gradually shifts onto programmable rails.
The third is the lender balance sheet. As stablecoin-linked card volumes grow, issuers face larger working-capital needs because settlement obligations can arrive before customer collections. Credit Coop’s model shows how these settlement flows can become financeable assets, supported by transaction data, onchain transparency and structured repayment.
This is where the next opportunity becomes more interesting. Stablecoin infrastructure is moving beyond issuance and payments into FX, settlement financing, treasury liquidity and private credit.
The broader takeaway is simple: stablecoins are no longer just moving money. They are beginning to reshape how the financial system manages currency, liquidity and credit.
Stablecoins are increasingly being misunderstood when viewed only through a crypto lens. Their role is shifting from a trading asset into infrastructure that sits across payments, treasury, FX and credit.
Visa’s growth is a good example. Consumers do not need to think about blockchain, and merchants do not need to accept crypto directly. Stablecoins can operate underneath familiar payment experiences, improving settlement while leaving the front end largely unchanged.
The same applies to institutions. A company using stablecoins for treasury or cross-border settlement is not necessarily making a crypto bet. It may simply be choosing a faster and more programmable form of money movement.
This is why the next phase of adoption may look less like “crypto adoption” and more like financial infrastructure upgrading. Stablecoins become most powerful when the technology fades into the background and users focus instead on speed, liquidity, cost and access.
The long-term opportunity is therefore much larger than digital-asset trading. Stablecoins are becoming part of the infrastructure through which money is stored, moved, settled and financed.
**1. Digital Dollarisation: **Greater access to USD stablecoins could accelerate currency substitution in markets with weaker local currencies, reducing the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy.
**2. FX Transmission Risk: **As stablecoin markets become more directly connected to local fiat markets, demand shocks may increasingly spill into traditional FX markets and amplify currency volatility.
**3. Liquidity and Funding Mismatch: **Stablecoin-linked payment growth creates working-capital needs. If settlement obligations grow faster than available funding, issuers and payment providers could face liquidity stress.
**4. Credit Risk in Settlement Financing: **Stablecoin settlement receivables may become a new institutional credit asset class, but rapid growth could encourage weaker underwriting, leverage and concentration risk.
**5. Regulatory Fragmentation: **Stablecoins sit across payments, banking, securities, FX and digital-asset regulation. Divergent rules across jurisdictions remain a major constraint for cross-border institutional adoption.
**6. Infrastructure Concentration: **As stablecoin activity scales through a small number of issuers, networks, exchanges and liquidity providers, operational or regulatory disruption at one major intermediary could have increasingly systemic effects.
Onigiri Capital (onigiri.vc), a US$50 million blockchain-focused investment fund, launched by Saison Capital, the venture arm of Japan’s Credit Saison. Onigiri Capital is on a mission to chart the next chapter of finance and invest in seed and Series A blockchain startups in stablecoins, payments, RWAs, DeFi and financial infrastructure. The fund’s strategy emphasizes connecting startups to Asia’s growing digital asset markets.
If you’d like to discuss or contribute to the next Institutional Lens, contact us at hi@onigiri.vc
Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.
