Greetings all. This morning the NYT released a poll of battleground Pennsylvania. It has Gov. Josh Shapiro up 55%-39% (+16), and Dems leading in the generic ballot by 7, 51%-44% in a state Trump won 50.4%-48.7% (1.7 points).
Very encouraging stuff for the 4 Dem House candidates we are supporting in Pennsylvania - Bob Harvie (PA-1), Bob Brooks (PA-7), Paige Cognetti (PA-8), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) - and for the party-wide effort to flip the GOP held state Senate and produce the first Dem trifecta since 1993.
Shapiro’s impressive showing got me wondering about polling in other governor’s races, so with Claude’s help I put together a chart of recent polls in key states. It’s encouraging stuff, consistent with a national swing of 7 or more points to the Democrats:
The polls I share with you I consider to be reliable, or a reasonable take on an a particular race. I try hard to weed out partisan or junky polls. For a deep dive on the growing questions around the integrity of polling I’m going live at noon ET today with data guy and Hopium friend Tom Bonier. You can join us by heading to the main Hopium site or by clicking here a bit before noon. To prep for our discussion today about one piece of the new political battlefield we are all now operating in be sure to review these Hopium posts and related articles:
Hopium -
Trump’s Incredible Meltdown, Rigging Elections, And The “Majority IllusionHopium -
Notes On Why The Polling Was So Off In Michigan(Link)NYT -
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed A False Election Narrative(gift link)NYT -
Why Polling Chaos Could Create Big Problems for American Politics(gift link)G. Elliott Morris -
How to rig a polling average
Trump posted this yesterday:
Yesterday, the corrupt Roberts Court gave Trump a targeted though ominous win in his ongoing and desperate efforts to rig the election. Here’s a smart summary of what happened yesterday from Yunior Rivas of Democracy Docket:
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson accused the Supreme Court’s conservative majority of injecting “chaos and uncertainty” into the 2026 midterm elections Monday after the Court lifted one injunction blocking President Donald Trump’s anti-mail voting executive order, even as a separate nationwide block remains in place.
In a blistering dissent, Jackson warned that the Court’s emergency ruling lets the Trump administration continue pursuing changes to state-run mail voting systems even though “no judge or Justice” has concluded that Trump’s order is constitutional.
“This ruling violates well-established precedents concerning this Court’s equitable discretion and needlessly injects chaos and uncertainty into the upcoming midterm elections,” Jackson wrote. “It also lets another shoe drop in the Kafkaesque nightmare that our precedents have been steadily creating for certain plaintiffs who seek to bring election-related challenges.”
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The Supreme Court’s order paused a lower court injunction that had blocked key provisions of Trump’s March executive order in 23 Democratic-led states and Washington, D.C. But the ruling did not decide whether Trump’s order is lawful, and another nationwide injunction against the U.S. Postal Service’s mail ballot rule is still in effect.
Jackson, one of three liberal justices who dissented, said the decision creates a new bind for states and voting rights groups seeking to challenge last-minute election changes. They can be told they sued too early before a final rule is issued, only to later risk being told they sued too late as Election Day approaches.
“The Court has held for a while now that even valid election-related legal claims can come too late,” Jackson wrote. “Today’s revelation is that such claims can also come too early — never mind that an election is looming and related harms are presently occurring.”
She added that the federal government, “which controls the timing of proposed and final rules,” can “easily game the system.”
The ruling marked a major, but potentially temporary, victory for Trump’s broader effort to exert federal control over mail voting ahead of the midterms. The majority concluded that the Democratic-led states sued too soon because, at the time they filed the case, the executive order had not yet resulted in a final agency rule imposing concrete obligations on them.
The Court stressed that its decision did not settle the legality of Trump’s order.
“The Court’s disposition of this application does not mean that any measure taken by the Government to implement the Order will necessarily be lawful,” the majority wrote. “On that score, time will tell.”
Learn more about the new national election protection program Hopium is standing up with the Democratic state parties across the country.
Other stories we are tracking…….
European leaders are coming to the US soon to lobby Trump on Ukraine (very welcome!):
There are two good stories this am about how Trump’s escalating attacks on Canada will do, clear material harm to battleground GOP candidates - Washington Post, Greg Sargent (TNR).
Be sure to check out my new conversation with Dr. Rob Shapiro about Trump’s failed economic strategy and what Dems need to do to start putting things right next year. Echoing Rob’s critique, we get this from the WSJ this morning, Bessent Mentor Druckenmiller Blasts Bond Intervention ‘Mistake’:
Hedge-fund veteran Stanley Druckenmiller delivered a blunt rebuke to his longtime protégé, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, over his plans to intervene in the government bond market to bring down interest rates.
Spending $4 billion or more to buy back long-dated Treasury bonds is a “mistake” that won’t address the fundamental reasons behind the rise in the U.S. government’s borrowing costs, Druckenmiller wrote in a
[scathing op-ed]in The Wall Street Journal.Those reasons include a surging budget deficit and national debt—which surpassed $40 trillion last week—as well as persistent inflation, according to Druckenmiller. Attempting to push down the 30-year Treasury yield will only stave off America’s fiscal reckoning
More from the Washington Post - Squeezed by tariffs and Iran war, farmers say they face a new crisis: The president’s policies are driving up prices for fertilizer, fuel and machinery. Meanwhile, a campaign to deliver emergency farm aid has stalled on Capitol Hill.
People have asked me for my view on Leader Jeffries’ meeting with Jared Kushner. 3 points: 1) It makes Trump look weak, losing. 2) It’s a deflating embarrassment for Mike Johnson and the House GOP 3) the memes floating around about “back room deals” and the Leader selling out Dems are among the most ridiculous things I’ve seen this cycle.
Of course the Leader should be meeting with others in power to advocate for our agenda. Does he need to disclose every meeting, call, text he has in the course of doing his job? Of course not. C’mon people! When the story broke he released a statement about what was discussed in the meeting, and has released this new video making clear that “no one gets a pass.” For more on the Leader’s commitment to accountability watch our recent. spirited conversation. For those who think that we should never ever be “talking to the fascists” a reminder that Mayor Mamdani met with Trump in the Oval Office, and Abdul El-Sayed went on primetime Fox News last night with Jesse Watters, who is as fashy as they come.
So, my take? Trump world asked for a meeting. He took it. Made his case. Is he obligated to disclose meetings or calls like this? No. Did it hurt the Rs that it was leaked? Absolutely. It’s a huge embarrassment for Mike Johnson. Thus taking the meeting was in my mind was smart and strategic, and it’s my bet that it was Team Jeffries who leaked the meeting, not Trump world - for the fact the meeting happened makes it look like the White House knows the House is going to flip and are really worried - and why oh why would the Rs want that.
And then there is this:
Let’s close with Hopium’s daily mantra:
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
Yes, my friends, it is that time…….
**Our Winning The House Campaign **- Donate | $1,118,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
**Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund **- Donate | $323,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.
Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $19,600 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
Winning The Senate - $752,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.
**Winning Georgia ***- *$31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party
Winning Iowa - $33,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party
**Winning Maine **- $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman
Winning Ohio - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early** **this year. Learn more about how our political battlefield is changing and how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January. Bring our Resolutions Project to your community. Fight for Hopium’s Agenda and let’s also embrace Leader Jeffries’ new agenda, “Fighting For An Affordable America.” Become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.
In the spirit if informing and not inflaming I’ve set…
