Morning all. We’ve had enough early in-person voting across the country for us to start being more confident in the data and trends we are seeing.
Morning all. We’ve had enough early in-person voting across the country for us to start being more confident in the data and trends we are seeing. Here’s the data I’m most interested in right now, via TargetEarly:
What this shows us is overall turnout is up, and we are seeing a big surge of young people, Blacks, and Hispanics in the early vote compared to this day in 2022. Whether this holds over the next 11 days and on Election Day we simply don’t know. But this is the data we have today, and it is very encouraging.
Here’s a breakout of the Hispanic/Latino data by state. Note there are now six states - Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, Nevada, Texas, Virginia - where the early vote in 2026 is outpacing the vote in 2024 on this day, a Presidential year!
Based on recent polling we should expect to match or surpass our 2022 margins with Hispanic voters so a large increase in Hispanic voters means a lot more votes for us, everywhere. The 2026 estimates are a range from a collection of recent polls of Hispanic voters:
We see a similar trend with young people. Lots more young people at a +37 Dem margin means a lot more votes for us.
That’s what I have this morning. Been doing a lot of number crunching and talking to a lot of reporters about this data so I’ve run out of time. For my latest comprehensive take on the 2026 election read and watch my post and video from yesterday that is loaded with data and fresh analysis:
One of very best candidates in the country, Nancy Lacore, running in SC-01 joins us live at 215pm ET, and I will be joining Alex Wagner live at 230pm to talk about this early vote data and more. Join us by clicking on this link. If you are hankering for more head to our library of wonderful interviews with our battleground candidates, state party leaders and thought-leaders driving the debate across the country. We’ve had done a great series of discussions in recent days with Rep. Adam Smith, John Della Volpe, ASDC President Jane Kleeb and more!
Now my friends, it is that time……time to go…..
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Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country this November, together! - Simon
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