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It’s a national holiday and, in a rare development, Rohan is actually taking it off. So we’re keeping this one short. Today’s theme: October surprises. With just three weeks until the midterms, the Trump administration is picking fresh fights with some familiar targets. Coincidence? Or maybe the idea is to provoke the opposition, rally the base, and change the subject from $4 gas, the war in Iran, grocery bills, immigration raids, Russian diesel, taxpayer-funded Trump ads, and the president’s apparently inexhaustible home-improvement agenda. One problem with the change-the-subject strategy: new polling suggests even some Trump voters are getting tired of the show.
In today’s newsletter: Rep. Omar’s home searched. Trump’s base problem. Musk opens his wallet. Buying from Putin. Did Russia’s bots go quiet? Measles toll rises. The Pope’s lung surgery. Riyadh under fire. And good climate news in News That Doesn’t Suck.
Congresswoman’s house raided: Federal agents searched the Washington D.C. area home of Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar this morning. The Department of Justice confirmed the court-authorized search was part of an ongoing criminal investigation but offered few details. Last month, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said there was an“ongoing investigation”related to Omar’s immigration documents. Rep. Omar came to the U.S. as a refugee from Somalia at age 12 and became a U.S. citizen in 2000.𝕏On social media, she said she’s okay, and accused Trump of attempting, “political intimidation." House Democratic leaders issueda joint statementcondemning the search as a “weaponization of the federal government.” Trump has made Omar — a Muslim progressive lawmaker and outspoken Trump critic — a frequent target of his attacks including remarks widely condemned as racist. Today, he said he’s “always found her to be totally crooked,” adding “but that has nothing to do with me.” No charges have been announced. Omar has denied allegations of immigration fraud. The timing raises questions about the Justice Department’s longstanding practice of avoiding public investigative actions that could influence an election.**Ready or not:**If you can’t tell by the onslaught of political ads, emails, and text messages - Election Day is closing in. Tomorrow marks three weeks until the midterms, and new numbers suggest Trump’s troubles extend beyond the opposition. According to Pew Research Center, Trump’s approval has fallen to asecond term low of 30%. Pew also found that 31% of Trump 2024 voters now disapprove of the job he’s doing; only 5% disapproved when he took office. Pollster Jon Cohen who writesfound signsthat “Trump voters are crossing over.” He summed it up this way: “a hard core of about one in 10 Trump voters has crossed over, and it looks durable. In states where Democrats are running candidates who draw those voters, such as Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Ohio by most counts, that’s enough to make a red state competitive.” You can find more of Cohen’s analysis in thisseries of Substack posts. If you need help getting organized ahead of voting,vote.orglets you check your registration, get ballot information, and find your polling place.**A hint of Musk:**Most of us would find it difficult to spend $276 million in three months, but that’s how much Elon Muskhas poured into Republican political groupssince July. This cycle, thetemporary trillionaireand on-again off-again Trump ally has contributed approximately $366 million trying to help the GOP keep control of Congress. That makes him the largest known donor of the midterm cycle.**Dive deeper:**According to a CNBC analysis of federal campaign finance records,14 of the 20 largest donor groups this cyclesupport Republican candidates or Republican-aligned political entities. Not every dollar is finding its target. One PACspent thousandson an ad attacking Troy Jackson, a Democrat running in Maine, but ran the ad in Portland, Oregon. They got the Portland part right.
**Rare act of bipartisanship:**Seven senators, four Republicans and three democrats, areurging Trumpto reverse his decision to allow the U.S. toimport diesel fuelfrom Russia. They say the deal violates a 2022 law banning Russian energy imports and accuse the administration of giving Putin a financial lifeline while he wages war on Ukraine. The group includes Republican senators Thom Tillis (R-NC), Susan Collins (R-ME) Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and John Curtis (R-UT). And Democrats Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Ron Wyden (D-OR). Some“back-of-the-napkin” mathsuggests the deal may do little to lower prices. It redirects Russian diesel to the U.S. without necessarily increasing global supply. In other words, more business for Putin but not necessarily cheaper fuel for Americans.**Truce or dare:**Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he learned about the ceasefirethrough the pressand would agree to it if Russia did. But it seems Moscow missed the memo; Russian forcescontinued attackingUkrainian energy sites. The Kremlininsists talksabout a possible ceasefire are ongoing.**Fresh air:**Meanwhile, Zelenskyy says Ukrainian strikes onmajor Russian data centersappear to have disrupted Russian bot activity online.Cloudflare datashows a sharp drop in bot traffic after Ukraine struck Yandex, Russia’s leading search and cloud-computing company (think Russian Google). The chronically online say they’re seeingless online disinformationandrage baitsince the attacks, though analysts caution there’sno proofthat this ishappening. Zelenskyy said it’s become “𝕏easier to breathe” on social media without so many bots.
**Measles update:**A sixth person with arecent measles diagnosis has diedin Pennsylvania. The CDC reports more than4,000 confirmed cases of measlesin the U.S., with Pennsylvania accounting for a significant share.Less than one percentof those infected in Pennsylvania were vaccinated, according to the state’s health department.**Pope’s postseason:**Withhis favorite teamnowout of the World Series, Pope Leo XIV is heading to the hospital Tuesday for lung surgery. The pontiff sayssurgeons will removea small, localized nodule from his lung. The Vatican says it was detected early.**Airport attacks:**Saudi Arabia’s military says it intercepted a𝕏ballistic missile headedfor Riyadh, Monday, days after deadlyHouthi attackson Riyadh’s main airport over the weekend. At least 13 people were killed in Saturday’s attack and another in a subsequent strike. The U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia’s capital says American citizens have alsobeen detainedfor “taking photos of recent events,” but hasn’t said how many or whether they’ve been released. President Trump isreportedly weighingjoining Saudi Arabia in military action againstYemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.Delta has pushed the launch oftheir Saudi Arabia serviceto March due to the attacks.**Trump vs. the judicial system:**Ajudge orderedTrump to stop runningtaxpayer-funded adspromoting himself on Sunday, but the ads were still airing Monday morning. Earlier this month, Trump said future ads would be funded by his campaign. He hasn’t offered to refund taxpayers for those already aired. In a separate case, another judge ordered the administration tostop cutting down treesat a D.C. golf course after workers reportedly took down more than 500 trees in one day.**Bad Branding:**Actor and comedian Russell Brand’ssexual assault trialis underway in London. He faces three counts of rape, three counts of sexual assault, and one count of indecent assault involving six women. He pleaded not guilty to all charges.**Wild weekend weather:**There’s extreme weather across the U.S.At leastfour people diedafter Hurricane Isaias hit Florida and Alabama. On the West Coast, massive waves from the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel are battering oceanfront properties alongthe Pacific Ocean. The same storm also brought flash floodingto the Las Vegas Strip.**Back in prison:**Christa Pike isout of the hospitaland back in prison after the state’sfailed execution attempt.Her fate remains unclear. Her attorneys are asking for her death sentence to be commuted to life in prison; Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is running for Tennessee governor, says the state shouldstill carry out her execution.Can baby oil fix it?: Sean “Diddy” Combswas hospitalizedbriefly over the weekend for a head injury. The former rapper is currently serving a 50-month sentence at Fort Dix in New Jersey for transporting women to engage in prostitution. It’s not clear how he injured his head.
A Brighter Crop: A French solar panel developer found thatcorn grown under a canopy of panelsproduced nearly 20% more corn than when grown in full sun during unusually hot, dry conditions. Meanwhile, those same panels generated clean electricity. A simple and effective win/win for the planet.**Clean Heat, Still Hot:**Despite the rollback of federaltax incentivesfor cleaner heating and cooling options,demand for clean HVAC tech hasn’t slowed. In fact, climate-friendly heat pumps are on track to match or exceed their previous sales record.
**One Remarkable Comeback:**Less than a year ago, 17-year-old Wyatt Anderson was paralyzed from the neck down after a basketball accident. Sunday, after months of rehab, he finished the Chicago Marathonin 3 hours and 56 minutes and raised money for spinal cord injury research along the way. His advice: “Be positive and smile.” Even, he says, when you have to fake it, he added, “It really does change your whole attitude.”
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