With two weeks left before the 2026 midterms, it’s worth keeping one thing top of mind at all times: Watch what politicians DO, not what they say.
That maxim was running through my head when I saw 𝕏this amazing chart from Ad Impact (click on the chart to enlarge it) late last night:
To me, this chart tells the story of the general election and why Republicans are in such a bind better than anything else I have seen or read.
So, let’s break it down, shall we?
What the chart shows is how often ads run by candidates and parties (and super PACs) mention President Donald Trump by name
As you can see, Republican candidates/committees LOVED to mention Trump for the first half of the year.
Why? Because that was prime primary season! Trump, especially six months ago, was still VERY popular with the Republican base. While Trump’s endorsement record isn’t as perfect as he touts publicly, it’s pretty damn good. Because Republican base voters, generally speaking, do what Trump asks them to do.
But notice how once we reach mid-August on the chart — effectively the end of the primary season — the red line representing Republican ads mention Trump starts to crater.
Meanwhile, at about that same time, the blue line — Democratic ads mentioning Trump — starts to soar upward.
In May, President Trump was mentioned in 47% of GOP broadcast ad airings. So far in October, that figure has fallen to just 1%.
In contrast, Dem ads have increasingly mentioned Trump in recent weeks. The President has been mentioned in 21% of Dem broadcast airings this month.
ONE PERCENT!
Which means that there are 21 times as many Democratic ads that reference Trump as there are GOP ones that reference the president!
And, I will note, that the vast majority of the 1% of Republican ads that refer to Trump do it solely to highlight where the GOP candidate disagrees with the leader of the party.
This new ad by former Sen. John Sununu, who is running for the open New Hampshire Senate seat, speaks to that trend:
“I’ve never even met the man”!!!!!
Not convinced yet?
How about the fact that Georgia GOP governor nominee 𝕏Rick Jackson will not appear with Trump when the president comes to the state to campaign this weekend?!?!
Your Honor, I rest my case.
And, honestly, it’s not hard to see why Republicans in anything close to a swing state are doing everything they can to get away from Trump.
While his poll numbers have been bad for quite some time, they appear to be cratering at the exact worst time for Republicans on the ballot.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday puts Trump’s job approval at 31% — the lowest mark he has ever hit in the organization’s data. Ever.
Which is broadly consistent with new national surveys from the Washington Post, Fox News and NBC — all of which show Trump’s approval in the mid-to-low 30s.
Here’s the polling average for Trump’s approval as of today:
And it’s also clear — from the polling — that Trump’s low approval ratings are having a knock-on effect on the broader Republican brand.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Democrats up 12 points over Republicans on the generic ballot. That is, again, broadly consistent with where the NBC, WaPo and Fox News surveys pegged the generic ballot.
Here’s the polling average on generic ballot:
If I were a Republican candidate, based on those numbers, I would be trying to memory-hole Trump too!
So, here’s the thing: Donald Trump can insist — as he does daily now — that “every place I’ve gone to, we’re up.”
He’s entitled to his own opinions! But not his own facts. And the facts — as shown in the Ad Impact chart above — make one thing *very *clear: Republican candidates want nothing to do with him.
