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Here’s a provocative thought: What if Democrats are now favored to win the Senate majority in 50 days?
Saying that even a few months ago would have gotten you laughed out of any DC bar. (And, yes, in DC people do talk about Senate control in the bars!)
Now? Well, take a look at the latest model run by :
Democrats have a 52% chance of winning! That still means the race for control is statistical dead heat — but what you’ve see in the last month (or so) is that things have been moving steadily in Democrats’ direction.
On a seat-by-seat basis, the biggest change from the last time I did these rankings is in Texas where Democrat James Talarico is now ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in polling averages.
My latest rankings are below. I will be updating these WEEKLY between and the election!
This post — and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential rankings — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.
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