This is the highest I have ever been while rating the 10 Senate races most likely to flip in the 2026 midterms!
Yes, I am on an airplane — jetting across country to Los Angeles for a speech tonight.(And then back on the red-eye. Good times!)
And, yes, this is a total Dad joke! What can I say? I’m a dad!
While the Senate playing field continues to broaden — now rates 10 Republican seats as competitive to just four for Democrats —the basic order of the seats in most in danger of flipping party control remains very similar to last week.
The national wind blowing at the backs of Democrats — and in the faces of Republicans — means that nine of the 10 best pickup chances below are in seats currently held by the GOP.
Given that widened playing field, the probability of Democrats netting the four seats they need to retake the majority have improved slightly since last week.
According to Polymarket, chances of a Democratic majority are at 65% — near the highest ever in that market.
(NOTE: Polymarket sponsors some of my content. Do with that information what you will!)
Below you’ll find the ten Senate races most likely to flip sides in 20 days. No adds or drops this week!
This post — and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential rankings — will be behind my paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.
