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The Senate map continues to collapse on Republicans.
In the last week alone, Republicans have pulled their advertising from North Carolina (a symbolic waving of the white flag) and diverted those millions to Kansas (where Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024) and South Carolina (where Trump won by 18!).
moved Kansas from “lean Republican” to “toss up” on Tuesday — just weeks after changing the race’s rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Of the seven races Cook currently rates as “toss ups,” six are currently held by Republicans — a sign of just how tipped against the GOP the national playing field has become in recent months. (The only Democratic seat in “toss up” is Michigan.)
The prediction markets reflect a growing investor confidence in Democrats’ ability to net the four seats they need retake the majority.
The odds as of Wednesday morning were 65% for a Democratic majority in 27 days.
(NOTE: Polymarket sponsors some of my content — although not this post. Do with that information what you will!)
My latest rankings are below. (My last rankings are here.) To be clear: These seats are ranked by the likelihood they will change party control in 27 days. So the #1 ranked race is the MOST likely to switch parties.
This week I have the same ten states — in a slightly different order! — that made the list last week. No adds or drops!
This post — and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential rankings — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.
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