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Less than three weeks out from the 2026 midterms, optimism abounds on the Democratic side of the aisle when it comes to the Senate majority.
And, I think, rightly so.
Look at where Donald Trump is traveling. He was in Alaska (Trump +13 in 2024) on Tuesday. He’s headed to Montana (Trump +20). And he’s scheduled to stop in South Carolina (Trump +18).
That travel doesn’t mean that Republicans are going to lose any (or all) of those states. But it does mean that the fight for the Senate majority is being fought almost exclusively on Republican territory.
According to , chances of a Democratic majority are at 64% — near the highest ever in that market.
(NOTE: Polymarket sponsors some of my content. Do with that information what you will!)
Below you’ll find the ten Senate races most likely to flip party control in 20 days. No adds or drops this week — same 10 contests as last week but in slightly different order!
This post — and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential rankings — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.
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