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Even in the seven days since I last broke down the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties on November 3, the national political environment has further eroded on Donald Trump and national Republicans.
There’s credible polling that shows South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham in a real race against physician Annie Andrews. Trump is going to ruby-red Nebraska to try to make sure Sen. Pete Ricketts gets over the finish line against independent Dan Osborn. Florida looks marginally competitive. People are starting to take a(nother) look at Mississippi.
The blame for this continued erosion for Republicans all lands at the feet of President Donald Trump, who stands at 61% disapproval in a new bipartisan Wall Street Journal poll — the highest disapproval rating of any president this close to a midterm election.
Given the continued tilting of the national political environment against Republicans, I have made a few changes — mostly dropping down Democratic-held seats — since last week.
My latest rankings are below. (My last rankings are here.) To be clear: These seats are ranked by the likelihood they will change party control in 34 days. So the #1 ranked race is the MOST likely to switch parties.
This post — and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential rankings — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.
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