This news from Politico’s “Playbook” on Thursday morning is all the talk of official Washington:
At moments of frustration and adversity, President Donald Trump has long made a habit of calling up friends to ask what they think of his advisers — and whether he should consider making changes.
These days, he’s asking about Susie Wiles, the once-unassailable White House chief of staff.
Trump has been soliciting allies’ views of Wiles and musing about replacements for his top aide, according to four people with direct knowledge of the conversations.
Wait, Trump is turning on a loyal top aide? WHO COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING?!?!?
Joking aside, the harsh reality for Trump’s Cabinet and top aides is this:
The 2026 election looks
verylikely to be bad-to-very-bad for him and his partyTrump will NEVER blame himself for the election results
He will find someone (or someones) to blame — and get rid of those people
Wiles now jumps to the top of that scapegoat list — replacing Secretary of ~~Defense~~ War Pete Hegseth in that slot.
My friend and I talked about the scapegoat sweepstakes Trump will engage in post-election in our “So Where Are We Now?!?” weekly podcast today. (Only 19 days away!)
We also broke down Trump’s madcap campaign tour and whether it will help or hurt Republican candidates. We did some 2028 talk too — about why JD Vance’s path to the nomination is a tough one.
And stay tuned until the end where Matt asks for reader help on a pesky tech problem plaguing our weekly chat….
Here’s a rough timeline of our chat (I used AI to build this timeline so take it cum grano salis):
00:00 — Welcome and the coming Trump blame game
Chris and Matt preview the midterms and ask whom Trump will scapegoat if Republicans lose.
00:50 — Is Susie Wiles on the way out?
Why Trump may be tiring of his chief of staff—and why personnel turnover is part of his reality-TV approach to governing.
05:40 — Trump’s new press secretary struggles
Katie Zacharia’s rocky debut, the transformation of the press secretary’s job and what Trump actually wants from his spokespeople.
12:20 — Could Pete Hegseth take the fall?
How Iran, the midterms or Trump’s desire for “new characters” could endanger Hegseth and other administration officials.
16:30 — Trump’s revolving-door reality show
Scaramucci, Michael Cohen, Steve Bannon and Elon Musk demonstrate how people leave Trump’s orbit—and sometimes return.
19:40 — “Pretend I’m on the ballot”
Trump’s midterm campaign strategy, whether his rallies still motivate Republican voters and how Democrats could use his own message against him.
24:00 — Is Trump losing his political power?
His weak approval rating, signs of frustration among Republican voters and the limits of his ability to energize the MAGA base.
27:40 — Trump enters the twilight of his career
The expiration date faced by dominant political figures—and whether Trump is now visibly past his peak.
30:00 — Trump poisoned the Republican bench
Why the GOP has produced so few independent national figures and how Trump’s dominance has constrained possible successors.
33:15 — The difficult position facing JD Vance
Why being Trump’s presumed heir may become a liability—and the complications facing Vance, Marco Rubio and other 2028 contenders.
38:20 — Will Mike Johnson survive a Republican defeat?
Johnson’s plan to remain GOP leader, the challenge he could face from Jim Jordan or Steve Scalise and why Trump may still want him around.
41:30 — The battle for the House and Senate
Why failing to win the House would be disastrous for Democrats and which Senate contests could define the election.
42:40 — Why Kansas and Texas matter
The effects of Trump’s economic policies in the farm belt, the enormous Republican investment in Texas and the symbolic importance of a Democratic breakthrough there.
47:55 — Iowa as the election’s tipping point
Why the Ashley Hinson–Josh Turek race could reveal whether Democrats are headed for a solid year or a genuine landslide.
50:05 — Which midterm winner runs in 2028?
Jon Ossoff, James Talarico and other rising Democrats who could emerge from the election as presidential prospects.
52:55 — Nixon, wrestling and political nostalgia
A detour through Richard Nixon’s signature pose, Ted DiBiase and politicians’ refusal to rule out presidential campaigns.
55:05 — Chris reveals his first-ever ballot
Chris displays his Virginia absentee ballot and discusses voting for the first time.
55:25 — Help solve Matt’s technology problem
Why Matt’s video freezes during Substack Live—and an appeal to viewers for technical advice.
58:15 — The Lego that nearly blinded Matt
A story about glasses, children, flying Legos and one extremely fortunate deflection.
60:30 — Closing and where to find Matt’s work
Final plugs, scheduling talk and a last bit of glasses-related banter.