Morning all. The big news today are yesterdays announcements by Anthropic and OpenAI that they intend to slow down the development of their Artificial Intelligence models. It feels like a before and after moment in human history, and a topic too big for one of our breezy Sunday posts……..
Here’s the top of the NYT homepage right now. Note what is in essence mockery coming from the NYT about Trump’s ridiculous disengagement from the issue:
Here’s a clip of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on CBS News this morning:
Let’s now watch our ridiculous leader try to answer a question this week about the threats of AI. It is another one of the images and video clips we saw this week that make it clear it’s time for him to step aside and let others lead now:
Remember, we were warned 42 years ago!
Keeping AI safe will now become a central part of we discuss here every day……
House Dems Start Detailing Accountability And Oversight Strategy - Both the WaPo and CNN have new stories that will be of great interest to this community….
From The Washington Post:
Favored
to regain the majority in November’s midterm elections — and with little official business to consider in the handful of days left in this session— Democrats’ attention has turned to mapping outan accountability agendathat would pull President Donald Trump, his administration and his family into a harsh spotlight next year.The Washington Post spoke to a dozen Democratic members and staffers poised to run committees should the party retake the House. They said they are preparing sweeping investigations of Trump’s growing wealth in office, his remaking of the federal government and his pursuit of his political enemies. In recent weeks, staffers have connected with outside groups for guidance on how to conduct effective investigations.
“There’s so much corruption and grift that it’s going to take the entire House on the Democratic side to do investigations appropriately,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D-California), who would probably lead investigations as chair the Oversight Committee in a Democratic-held House, said in an interview. “We are all talking.”
From CNN:
With two months until the midterm elections, Democrats are laying the groundwork to launch far-reaching investigations into the Trump administration and preparing for high-stakes court battles if they win control of the House of Representatives in November.
President Donald Trump’s war with Iran, his White House ballroom project, his family’s business dealings and the administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files will be among the top targets of investigations if Democrats take back the House, according to conversations with over a dozen Democratic lawmakers and aides.
Democrats don’t want to squander the opportunity to act as a check on Trump if they reclaim the majority and say they have learned a lot since the last time the party controlled the House while Trump was in office. Few say they are interested in launching an impeachment process on day one, and many instead are eyeing a new tool that would be at their disposal to try to quickly compel the testimony and documents they seek: lawsuits.
In the majority, Democrats would have the ability to sue the Trump administration in a more effective way since they have not had standing to do so in the minority. Whether it is compelling testimony from a top administration official, escalating a fight over obtaining documents or trying to halt the construction of Trump’s White House ballroom, Democrats plan to be strategic and aggressive about taking their fight to court.
“We’re going to use every tool in the toolbox and we will have certainly a lot more authority to get ourselves into court in the majority than we did when we were in the minority,” Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, who is in line to lead the powerful House Judiciary Committee, told CNN.
“We are not taking no for an answer in terms of getting the evidence we need,” Raskin said.
Dive into these two stories for more…..
**Encouraging Senate Polling, Trump Losing More Ground, Rs Dropped A Lot of Polls This Week - **Just as the pace of ads are picking up, as we saw in our new Ad and Video Round Ups this week (Wed, Thur, and Fri), we are starting to see an increase in battleground state polls. Here’s a selection of the independent polls released in recent days:
All the national and state polling data we got this week tell the same story - we got a shot at flipping the Senate peeps, and our candidates are performing well throughout the battleground.
In yesterdays post I reviewed new data showing economic conditions in the US deteriorating, and Trump’s polling starting to decline again. Here’s a bit more data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showing the current trajectory of public opinion right now. 44.8 is the lowest reading in the past 65 years of this survey. Friday’s new reading came in at 47.8, the second lowest ever recorded:
In my talk with Tom Bonier a few weeks ago about the faking and manipulation of polls I said that we should anticipate that soon the Rs would start dropping polls into the key Senate races to start working the polling averages to attempt to create a false and favorable election narrative - as they did in the last midterm, successfully.
In the past few days we’ve seen what may be the beginning of that effort as many of the same pollsters involved in the 2022 effort (and in 2025 NJ) dropped ten polls in nine battleground Senate races. Note the very limited overlap in their releases, as if this effort was….how do you say? Coordinated!
Yesterday as I was rummaging around Twitter the following was the lead on my “trending topics,” something that is obviously a false, Elon created narrative to bolster Paxton. The Texas Senate race isn’t “tightening.” There is no data to back this up, but here we are - Paxton stronger, Talarico weaker - a complete fabrication:
In these previous efforts we’ve tracked the main goal has always been to make it look like the race is breaking towards the Rs and away from the Ds. To make them strong and us weak, and to, as Trump told us, demobilize our supporters, dry up our money, turn on the circling firing squad, and have people dis-engage. But we are not going to let that happen, are we?
For reference here’s my analysis of the right aligned polling op in the New Jersey Governor’s race last year. Participating pollsters included five of the pollsters above - co/efficient, Insider Advantage, Quantus, and Trafalgar.
Yes, the fuckery has begun, peeps. Note, as expected, the Russians are jumping in too:
Anticipating, monitoring, and countering this stuff is one of the main objectives of the State Parties’ New Battlefield/Election Protection project that we helping stand up and support. We launched a fundraising effort to raise $50,000 for this project and have already raised $27,000 - thank to all who’ve jumped in! Hope you will consider chipping in today - this is vital work as we prepare for them to do “whatever it takes” to hold to power in the coming months.
Now, my friends, it is that time….
We released a series of terrific new interviews with our intrepid candidates this week: David Crowley (WI-Gov), Lindsay James (IA-2), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-1), and Amish Shah (AZ-1). You can watch them all here.
We also launched a new daily feature, the Hopium Ad and Video Roundup. It’s a powerful new window into what is happening in our battleground races. Be sure to catch our Wed, Thur, and Fri editions if you haven’t gotten to them yet.
Let’s recharge with Hopium’s Daily Mantra:
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
Be sure to become an Early Vote Champion in your networks, communities, and organizations……
Sign up to become a Democracy Protector too……
**Our Winning The House Campaign **- Donate | $1,231,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The Senate - $903,100 raised, $1,200,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.
**Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund **- Donate | $395,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, primaries and need a bit more help.
Our list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with these great candidates here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $44,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $27,100 raised, $50,000 goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
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Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
