The Cost of Money — A Premium Intellectualist Series on Capital Markets
More than 1.3 billion barrels of Middle Eastern oil supply had already been lost by June, equivalent to about 3.6% of a year of global production. More than 10 million barrels a day remained offline in August. Now a Saudi pipeline carrying 4% to 5% of current global supply around the Strait of Hormuz has been shut after drone attacks.
The war in the Middle East has produced what the International Energy Agency calls the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” surpassing in volume the oil lost during the 1973 energy crisis and every major disruption since.
By June 22, cumulative supply losses from Middle Eastern producers had already exceeded 1.3 billion barrels since the war began on Feb. 28. At August’s global production rate, that is equivalent to roughly 3.6 percent of an entire year of world oil production — or about 13 days of current global output.
The losses continued.
More than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf oil production remained offline in August, according to the IEA. Global production fell to 100.1 million barrels a day, while tracked global oil inventories have declined by 507 million barrels since February as stored petroleum has helped compensate for the shortage. The agency now says a full recovery in supplies from Middle Eastern producers has been deferred until 2027.
Against that backdrop, Saudi Arabia has now lost access, at least temporarily, to one of the principal routes it had been using to work around the crisis.
In Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, one character asks how another went bankrupt:
“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”
That is how financial risk often works.
The Cost of Money explains how capital markets, debt, interest rates, currencies and credit shape daily life before the pressure becomes obvious.
A founding membership unlocks The Cost of Money and every Intellectualist premium series:
The Cost of Money — capital markets, debt, interest rates, currencies and financial risk
History of the Present — the forces, decisions and historical currents shaping the world now
Scandal — political misconduct, elite impunity and institutional failure
Bits & Bites — artificial intelligence, science, technology and what comes next
Reality Check — what is true, what is false and what survives the evidence
Members receive early access to major reporting and deeper analysis before public narratives harden.
They will also receive priority access to curated events as the project expands.
The News remains a separate, free-to-read public service.
The first 1,000 founding members will be permanently recognized as founders.
Join now and receive 33 percent off your first year, available to the first 1,000 founders.
