The macroeconomic numbers are good. America is near full employment. The stock market is doing well. Inflation is high, but down from where it was with Joe Biden. Americans do not care. They hate both parties. Republican operatives on the ground in state after state tell me the same story. Voters are enraged at the GOP.
Diehard Republican cheerleaders do not get it. They insist the economy is good in the same way Democrats did when Biden was President. In fact, both Biden and Trump had a similar macroeconomic picture with a strong stock market, inflation receding by 2024, and good jobs reports. The macroeconomic picture of the nation does not matter to the American family. What matters is the pocketbook.
President Trump promised to fix what Americans knew Joe Biden had wrecked. He has done two major things that voters remember: tariffs and a war. Tariffs were the President’s economic panacea. They would not raise costs on Americans. They would restore American manufacturing. They would right global trade wrongs. They have done none of those things. In fact, not only have tariffs made things worse for consumers, they have not restored American manufacturing muscle. The President’s supporters can argue that takes time, but Americans measure time in the distance from one election to the next. Time is up.
On the war, we clearly did not have a plan. We now have a quagmire with Iran holding the world’s oil hostage to inflict maximum pain on the President and his party in the midterms. While the President and his team argue that the oil is flowing, Iran and its proxies exercise varying levels of control over two major global checkpoints — the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.
Polling is not altogether reliable in the United States, but the combination of the polling average and consistent polling trends can show us where things are headed. Democrats typically get a summer bounce that declines and polls tend to overestimate Democrat support anyway. Polling trends show the public is increasingly dissatisfied with the President and Republican support for the President is fading to the point Republican strategists worry Republicans will not show up in November.
The President’s hardcore base insists anyone on the Right who points out the problems is actually suppressing the vote. Democrats did the same with Joe Biden. The reality, however, is that the hardcore partisans of both parties live in bubbles wearing rose colored glasses when their party is in power. Gas prices have not been this high before an election. Diesel prices are not coming down and Republican plans to ban diesel exports will cause other prices to skyrocket as anything coming to the United States on a ship will have transport costs go up significantly. There is no easy way out of this.
I have continually maintained that, with a Democrat bias in the polls, Republicans are in a better position than it seems. I stand by that. I am in the minority. One Republican operative in Georgia told me that Republican door knockers across the state are getting doors slammed in their faces. Another in Texas told me voters there are so furious with the President and his party the GOP is starting to worry some otherwise safe Republican seats will be lost.
Oddly enough, however, Republicans have a fighting change in Michigan and New Hampshire to offset a loss in North Carolina and a failure to pick up Georgia. Ken Paxton, in Texas, though deeply flawed can still win. The Republicans have an extraordinary money advantage compared to the Democrats. The Democrats, however, have a far more motivated base ready to turnout in droves to drive out the GOP.
Events can change things. Events could shift things back towards the GOP. But, for now, the currents in the American electorate work against the GOP and the President. Every time Mr. Trump takes to social media or television, he reminds Americans they want someone to hold him accountable. I am an ever shrinking minority who thinks the GOP will not win, but can mitigate the damage. I am an increasingly lonely optimist not that things will go well, but that things will not be as bad as some thing. The consensus among Republican operatives is that doom is at the party’s doorstep.
