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If you look at the 50,000-foot view of the coming 2026 election, you quickly perceive that EVERY indicator suggests a massive Democratic wave building.
Donald Trump is unpopular. Gas prices are over $4.00 a gallon. People are very pessimistic about the state and direction of the economy. Historic midterm election trends suggest the party in the power loses House seats more than 90% of the time.
But the 50-foot view of the House and Senate maps looks different. Yes, Republicans are defending 22 Senate seats but 21 of them are in states where Trump won in 2024. Yes, Republicans currently have only a two-seat House majority. But thanks to re-redistricting wins over the past 18 months, they stand to gain 8(ish) Democratic seats — meaning that the real margin for Republicans is 10.
So, are we heading for a major Democratic wave or a Democratic ripple?
My friend and I debated that during our weekly conversation Thursday, which I have taken to calling “So Where Are We Now?!??”
You can watch or listen to the whole chat above. Matt and I also talked about individual Senate races, Ted Cruz and the 2028 presidential contest, Milo Yiannopoulos and even religion!
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