Within minutes of the Associated Press reporting that Russia had fired a missile at Poland, killing two civilians, my national security sources were contacting me in a panic; they believed Poland, a NATO member, might invoke Article 5, which holds that an attack on any NATO member is considered an attack on all NATO members.
Would Russia be depraved enough to carry out an act of naked aggression like this? Clearly yes: that’s exactly what they’re doing in Ukraine. I wasn’t so sure, though, that Russia had enough of a death wish to intentionally provoke nuclear-armed NATO into direct confrontation. But as I frantically asked my sources, including one with ties to the highest levels of the Pentagon and deeply knowledgeable about covert operations in Ukraine, the consensus opinion, as he bluntly put it, was that “Yes,” of course Russia is stupid enough to pull something like this. Much of the covert military assistance provided by NATO to Ukraine was passing through the Polish border, so perhaps Russia wanted to punish them, the thinking went.
Though cognizant of the fact that my sources had access to classified information that I did not, I remained skeptical of AP’s account for one other reason. The story cited as its evidence a single, unnamed “senior intelligence official.” While I didn’t doubt this source said what AP reported they said, relying on a single source is a big no-no in journalism, not only because sources might lie but because humans are fallible: cognitive bias comes for us all. Hence the “two source” norm in journalism, which requires allegations be corroborated by a second source.
As it turned out, not only was the missile strike not intentional; it apparently wasn’t even Russia’s doing. While the missile was Russian-made, NATO officials soon clarified that it was very likely a Ukrainian air-defense missile that hit Poland on accident. (To be clear, Russia still bears moral responsibility here: it’s their invasion that Ukraine is firing missiles to defend against.) To President Biden’s credit, he and the White House quickly pushed this clarification out to major media outlets before it could spiral into a further international crisis. Shortly thereafter, the AP issued a correction — along with countless other outlets like the Washington Post for which AP, a wire service, provides copy.
Yet the fact remains that, as with my sources, some very-high level officials were swayed by the AP’s story, at least for a little while. World leaders even convened an emergency meeting to discuss a response.
This case is illustrative of perhaps the biggest dirty secret of the intelligence community: that they’re often just as reliant on open-source news media reporting as the rest of us are. Far from the all-seeing eye of Sauron depiction advanced by Hollywood movies like the Bourne Identity, the national security state overwhelmingly relies on the open record just like anybody else. As a reporter, I’ve obtained countless intelligence reports whether by leaks or the Freedom of Information Act, and when you look through the sourcing, only a small fraction derive from the kinds of shadowy sources and methods one associates with spycraft.
That’s not to say the national security community aren’t privy to large numbers of secrets — they are. But the fog of war hangs heavy over everyone. And that’s a good reason to exercise some patience in reporting out high-stakes stories like these, so you can get them right instead of getting them first.
Or at least get a second source.
Feel Like This Should Be A Bigger Story
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