The livestream today broke down HOW order flow and the order book reveal WHO is actually moving markets in real time, and WHY bonds making new lows while equity hedging stays complacent is the setup that matters right now.
Main takeaways from the macro playbook section:
Bonds made new lows and thirty year rates printed a cycle high, and nobody watching these streams should be surprised. The short bond thesis was laid out at the highs, the position is on sides, and the goal never changes: get trades on sides, move stops to breakeven, and preserve risk rather than chasing lows.
A live gold trade played out on the stream in real time. A capitulating player moved the order book on the bid side at the highs, and the play was to go with him while he executed, then fade once the bid pressure was done. The same player showed up on the sell side hours later, and the round trip was worth roughly 150 ticks.
The order book is pattern recognition, not inside information. Market makers run the same song and dance every day, so the edge is identifying anomalies, HOW an order navigates the book, and whether it is urgent or passive. Years in the seat staring at the same market pay extreme dividends because the anomalies jump out.
Charts cannot show you the 8,000 lot offer resting above your long. That is WHY short term futures traders without order book data are leaving a massive informational input on the table, and WHY institutions model the limit order book even when they are not taking directional trades.
The three greatest risks in equity markets right now: interest rate volatility from higher inflation, a carry trade unwind against the leverage in the system, and vol complacency at the highs. Leveraged ETF flows into the Micron and SanDisk products show the dip got bought, not capitulated, and one week vol sitting below one month vol says hedging pressure is complacent exactly at the highs.
Every move in markets is path dependent. If the forward curve prices fewer hikes and more cuts, that eases financial conditions, stimulates the economy, and forces long end rates higher. The two year decomposition shows real rates doing the work while the short end gets less restrictive, which is exactly the mix that lets the long end keep rising, because inflation is a liquidity contracting mechanism.
You can find the free recording on the Order Flow Playbook here in the YouTube video:
Tomorrow's stream takes on WHERE equity positioning actually sits, from the leveraged ETF flows chasing semis to the put selling that never let the leverage clear. It will map HOW to read that positioning at the index and sector level so you know WHAT is priced and WHAT is not.
Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link (the first half will be free and streamed to Twitter and YouTube, where the second half will only be available on Substack for paid subscribers):
