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The term “October Surprise” has become so common in political circles that it’s almost cliche at this point.
The idea — in case you have been away from Planet Earth for the last few decades — is that something BIG always happens in the month before the election that fundamentally alters it.
While I think both the frequency of October Surprises and their impact on elections tend to be overblown, everyone — and I mean everyone — asks me about them.
So, naturally, I turned the tables during a Substack Live with my friend — and asked him what (if anything) he thought could disrupt this election between now and November 3.
His response? The bond market. Which surprised me!
I asked him to explain. He did:
The bond market underpins the world’s financial system. The reason America has been able to spend more than it brings in, the U.S. government, is because U.S. Treasuries are considered the most secure financial instrument in the world. Safest bet. Safest bet. Therefore, the interest rate that the U.S. government had to pay was very low….
…The interest rate that the federal government is having to pay to issue new debt, which it has to issue every day because every day we’re spending money we don’t have, that interest rate is continuing to climb.
And the normal things that are done to stop that climb are not working… You want to know what the October surprise is? It’s financial Armageddon. Because once this goes out of control, which it’s getting close to, the world economy melts down.
Scary, no? Especially when you consider headlines like this one from CNBC on Thursday: “30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004 as bond market rout continues.”
Leland and I talked about that, our view on the state of the campaign, why the politics of AI are changing (again) and more.
I hope you check it out — for FREE — above. And speaking of free, “So What” readers can get a FREE month of Leland’s Substack simply by clicking this link. (Thanks Leland!)
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