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James Talarico has a better than 50-50 chance of winning the Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton, according to the latest run of the ’s 2026 election forecast.
“Texas is sort of a perfect storm” for Democrats right now data scientist Maddisen Murrell told me in a Substack Live Friday.
Talarico is a better-than-average Texas Democratic candidate. Paxton is a worse-than-average GOP candidate. And the national political environment clearly favors Democrats.
Combine it all and you get this:
Myself, Maddisen and DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst broke down all the latest numbers on the likelihood of the House and Senate flipping to Democrats. We also went through a bunch of individual races — including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate and South Dakota Senate.
You can watch the whole thing above. And you can check out the 2026 Election Forecast here.
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