“It isn’t a matter of forgetting. What one has to learn is how to remember and yet be free of the past.” – Aldous Huxley
Coming up this week: geopolitics on stage
The pretence of multicurrency platforms
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In the week to September 9th, three quarters of Robinhood stock-token swap volume traded outside the NYSE session.
For more detail, check out Allium’s recent report.
Get weekly onchain data and more analysis like this from the Allium Research team on Substack.
Not much macro data this week, but a LOT of geopolitics.
Europe is reeling after Germany’s far-right AfD party won its second regional election in two weeks yesterday, securing over 38% of the vote in the northeast state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the far-left Linke party won the state election in Berlin.
Today, G7 foreign ministers meet ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York.
Also, the European Central Bank launches Pontes, a platform for wholesale tokenized-asset settlement – I’ll write more about this tomorrow.
Around 130 heads of state gather in New York on Tuesday for the week-long UN General Assembly Debate – this is more an opportunity for speechifying to an insider audience than an opportunity for actual dialogue. But at least the UN is aware of its waning influence: the theme of this year’s Assembly is “Restoring Trust, Managing Transformation: A United Nations That Delivers for All”. It’s notable that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is skipping the event entirely despite being in the US anyway. Putin is also giving it a miss. Germany’s leader has cancelled his trip as he fights to keep his job. But Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will be there, as well Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu. There’s always an outside chance the Debate will produce something constructive after all.
Also on Tuesday, New York hosts the US Treasury Market Conference.
On Wednesday, the Global Digital Trade Expo kicks off in Hangzhou (Zhejiang province), this year focusing mainly on AI-related supply chains.
And we get the advance US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from S&P Global.
Thursday brings the long-awaited summit in Washington DC between China’s leader Xi Jinping and President Trump. While we’re all fixated on any hints as to the temperature on trade tension, the bigger deal will be in any implicit (or maybe explicit) trade-offs between supply chains and geopolitical concessions: a pause on tariff increases in exchange for pressure on Iran? No comment on Taiwan in exchange for some aircraft orders?
And on Friday, we get the final September consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan.
(what’s on my mind as we head into the week)
The recent BRICS Summit held in New Delhi did not, despite the declared ambition of Indian officials, produce a commitment to launch a group payment platform. Rather, the post-Summit Declaration rather tamely acknowledged work done so far by the BRICS Payment Task Force on studying the interoperability of national systems and the potential for local currency settlement – and it encouraged continued discussion “while respecting national priorities and acknowledging that there is no one-size-fits-all approach”. The overall vibe is one of “we have no consensus on the need nor the format”.
